Nifty Weekly Outlook (15th to 19th November 2010)

Last Week ending on Friday (12th November 2010) NIFTY ended in the red at 6071.65 with the loss of around 4% as compared to the last week’s closing of 6312.45. Last week was quite volatile for NIFTY even though it was trading in a very narrow range. Festive sentiments, coupled with the US Federal Reserve's QE2 decision had buoyed the NIFTY to an all-time closing high of   6312.45 on Muhurat trading day. More positive reaction was expected as US President Barack Obama, on his India visit, announced deals which would create jobs for thousands in India and US. After kissing the life time on closing basis, a good amount of profit booking was witnessed in markets in the last week. The last trading day of the week, proved to be a Black Friday for the markets all around the globe as fears raise that China would increase interest rates to further cool inflation. Even the September industrial production in India grew by 4.4% as compared to 8.2% in the previous year. OMCs, BANKING & FINANCE, METALS, SUGARS and REALTY & INFRA witnessed a sharp downfall backed by profit booking. Last week, NIFTY made a Long Black Candlestick, which engulfed the previous week’s candle too. The way the BANKING Stocks crashed on Friday, signals a sharp downfall in the near term, as it was the only Sector, which maintained the upside movement in the markets till date. For the week, NIFTY made a high of 6335.90, while a low of 5056.75. NIFTY has moved much above its 40-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 5503.75 and the 20-Days EMA of 6149.61.

Net Buying of Rs. 105.86 Crore was witnessed by the FIIs in the Cash Segment last week.

Majority of the International Indices have retraced back from their important resistance levels after touching them, raising the expectation of a bit of correction, hence a cautious approach is recommended while trading in the markets. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and avoid making fresh investments at this point of time. Globally, investors were disappointed as Obama declined the South Korean trade agreement in the G-20 meet in Seoul. 

Some important Quarterly Results to be announced next week in India are RENUKA, SATYAMCOMP and CESC.

On the Global front, in Asia, Japan will release its quarterly GDP data this week, and the Bank of Korea will announce a key interest rate decision. In Europe, Several European firms will report results next week, including British luxury fashion house Burberry and German chipmaker Infineon Technologies. Minutes from the Bank of England's latest meeting and Germany's ZEW economic-sentiment survey are also on the calendar. In US, Wal-Mart, Dell and Home Depot lead the earnings parade, while retail sales, inflation figures and housing starts top the economic data. Other than this, GM (GENERAL MOTORS) IPO is also going to start in US in the next week.

For the next week, the levels of 6180 / 6250 / 6320 will act as an important resistance, whereas the levels of 6000 / 5930 / 5880 will act as an important support for NIFTY.