Sunday, December 12, 2010

Nifty Outlook for 13th December 2010 and Pre Market Calls



On Friday, NIFTY made a Bullish Piercing Line Candlestick Pattern on the Daily Charts. This pattern indicates that the bears are losing their confidence and reevaluating their short positions. The potential buyers start thinking that new lows may not hold and perhaps it is time to take long positions. NIFTY opened flat with a negative bias and suddenly dipped 50 points and made a low of 5721.15 for the day, breaching the important support level if 5750. A sudden spurt from the day’s low was witnessed, which led NIFTY to the day’s high of 5865.50 after the announcement of excellent IIP Numbers for the month of October, which were at 10.8% Vs 4.4% (MoM). A good pull back was witnessed in the Mid Cap and Small Cap Stocks, which were brutally sold off the previous day. BANKING & FINANCE, AUTO, CEMENT, OMCs, METALS, CAPITAL GOODS, FERTILIZERS and TEXTILE Stocks witnessed a good pull back. For the day, NIFTY ended at 5857.35 levels.

Net Selling of Rs. 1239.25 Crore in Cash Segment and of Rs. 288.94 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday's Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Buying was witnessed of Rs. 812.32 Crore in Index Futures, while, Net Selling was witnessed in Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options Segment of Rs. 1006.58 Crore, Rs. 90.56 Crore and Rs. 4.12 Crore, respectively.     

NIFTY DEC FUTURE ended with the premium of 22.25 points to the Spot NIFTY. 


Technically, NIFTY witnessed a bounce back after a brutal or say a panic selloff in the previous trading session. The level of 5750 is acting as a strong support which if breaches again on the closing basis; NIFTY may test the levels of 5500.

On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Urban Investment for the month of November. Rightmove House Price Index, Producer Price Index for the month of November will be announced in UK.

On Friday, PBOC (Peoples’ Bank of China) raised the RRR (Reserve Requirement Ratio) by 50 Bps (Basis Points), the effect of which in Asian and Indian Markets have to witnessed on Monday.

NIFTY is trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 5943.91 and the 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 6052.84. Both the Moving Averages are indicating a negative crossover, with short term moving average crossing the long term moving average from upside. The first immediate resistance for the NIFTY comes at 5720 on the Closing Basis.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has entered into negative territory now. But at the same time, RSI (Relative Strength Index) reverted from the overbought zone. Brutal selling in BANKING stocks, which maintained the markets to life time high, indicates a very cautious approach to be followed while trading in the markets at this stage. Investors are also suggested to avoid making fresh investments at this stage.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5875 / 5900 / 5940 levels. At the same time, 5820 / 5780 / 5750 will act as major intraday support levels.

What does Indicators Say?
  1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 43.65 and 44.37, respectively, showing a negative crossover.
  2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -47.62 and -46.47, respectively. a negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
  3. +DI: 14.57, -DI: 31.93ADX: 27.27: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicating the development of strength in the current trend.
  4. SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)The values of these two indicators are 6052.84 and 5943.91. Both the Moving Averages are showing Negative Crossover.
Pre - Market Calls:

IVRCLINFRA      Buy only if it trades above 127 for the Targets of 130 & 132, with the strict Stop Loss of 125.60.



On the Daily Charts, IVRCLINFRA has made a Bullish Engulfing Candlestick, with a good spurt in volume. The stock has been beaten down very much and this Candlestick Pattern with the spurt in volume, signals an upside in the stock. The stock is facing a strong resistance of 127 on the Daily Charts, which if is crossed by the stock, will invite a Short Term Buying Interest in the stock. Stock’s 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) are quoting at 145.14 and 130.56, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 41.40 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (13.87) is still below the Negative Directional Index (37.19), ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 38.96 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.  

Hence, it is recommended to buy IVRCLINFRA only if it trades above 127 for the Targets of 130 & 132, with the strict Stop Loss of 125.60. 

VIDEOIND       Buy only if it trades above 215 for the Targets of 220 & 222, with the strict Stop Loss of 212.



On the Daily Charts, VIDEOIND has made a Long White Candlestick, with a slight spurt in volume. The stock has been beaten down very much and this Candlestick Pattern with the spurt in volume, signals an upside in the stock. The stock is facing a strong resistance of 215 on the Daily Charts, which if is crossed by the stock, will invite a Short Term Buying Interest in the stock. Stock’s 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) are quoting at 249.92 and 222.65, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 40.96 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (11.86) is still below the Negative Directional Index (38.15), ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 42.03 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.  

Hence, it is recommended to buy VIDEOIND only if it trades above 215 for the Targets of 220 & 222, with the strict Stop Loss of 212. 


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