Saturday, December 25, 2010

Nifty Outlook for 27th December 2010 and Pre Market Calls



On Friday, NIFTY made a White Opening Marubozu Candlestick on the Daily Charts.  A very tepid session was witnessed, with a bit of volatility in the second half of the session. Majority of the Markets were closed on the Christmas Eve, due to which the Volume were almost absent from the markets. NIFTY had a muted opening and had a movement of only 20-30 points on the either side. Sectors like, SUGAR, AUTO, BANKING, IT, METALS, REALTY & INFRA, SHIPPING and PHARMA gave an excellent movement for the day, besides being extremely volatile. It was again a difficult session for the traders. It was only the last hour of trading in which NIFTY moved to the day’s high of 6017.35, with a good push provided by the ADAG Group (RELINFRA, RELCAPITAL, RELMEDIA, RCOM and RPOWER). NIFTY tried to cross its important resistance of 6025, but could not move above the day’s high of 6017.35. For the day, NIFTY made a low of 5940.25 and closed the session at 6011.60.

Net Buying of Rs. 14.82 Crore in Cash Segment and of Rs. 1235.88 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday's Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 586.80 Crore and of Rs. 1026.50 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and  Index Options, respectively, while, Net Selling was witnessed in Stock Futures and Stock Options of Rs. 372.82 Crore and Rs. 4.59 Crore, respectively.     

NIFTY DEC FUTURE ended with the premium of 29.10 points to the Spot NIFTY.


Technically, NIFTY bounced back, but with lack of buying interest and very sluggish volumes. NIFTY is now trading above its 20-days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 5940.25, but it was not able to cross the resistance of its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 6018.78. Now the next resistances for NIFTY come at 6080 and 6100 levels, whereas the level of 5850 is acting as a Good Support Level.
 
On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with a number of Economic Data, like, Vehicle Production, Housing Starts, Construction Orders, Jobless Rate, National CPI Ex Food, Energy, Overall Housing Spending, Industrial Production, Retail Trade and Large Retailer’s Sales for the month of November, Tokyo Consumer Price Index and Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy for the month of December. Hometrack Housing Prices for the month of December will be announced in UK.

NIFTY is trading above its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 5956.87. Now the next resistance for NIFTY comes at its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 6018.78, which it tried to touch on Friday but could not touch it and made a high of 6017.35 only. Both the Moving Averages are indicating a negative crossover, with short term moving average crossing the long term moving average from upside.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has entered into negative territory now. But at the same time, RSI (Relative Strength Index) reverted from the overbought zone. Brutal selling in BANKING stocks, which maintained the markets to life time high, indicates a very cautious approach to be followed while trading in the markets at this stage. Investors are also suggested to avoid making fresh investments at this stage.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 6020 / 6050 / 6080 levels. At the same time, 5970 / 5945 / 5920 will act as major intraday support levels.

What does Indicators Say?
  1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 53.93 and 50.49, respectively, showing a negative crossover.
  2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -3.93 and -25.16, respectively. a negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
  3. +DI: 17.57, -DI: 22.53ADX: 21.51: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicating the development of strength in the current trend.
  4. SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)The values of these two indicators are 6018.78 and 5956.87. Both the Moving Averages are showing Negative Crossover.
Pre - Market Calls:

BAJAJHIND   Buy only if it trades above 119 for the Targets of 121.50 & 122.50, with the strict Stop Loss of 117.60.



On the Daily Charts, BAJAJHIND has made a Long White Candlestick continuously after another Long White Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. Government has allowed the Trading of SUGAR Futures in the Commodities Market from December 27, 2010, the effect of which was witnessed in the Sugar Stocks on Thursday and Friday too. The stock is facing strong Resistance at the level of 119. On Friday, it made a high of 118.80 and closed at 117.70. The stock moved above it 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 111.74 on Friday by opening at 112.80 and making a high of 118.80. The 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) is quoting at 119.98.  The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 55.83 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (22.01) is still below the Negative Directional Index (25.69), ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 31.51 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening. 

Hence, it is recommended to buy BAJAJHIND only if it trades above 119 for the Targets of 121.50 & 122.50, with the strict Stop Loss of 117.60.

RCOM   Buy only if it trades above 142 for the Targets of 146 & 148, with the strict Stop Loss of 140.50.






On the Daily Charts, RCOM has made a White Opening Marubozu Candlestick, with an excellent spurt in volume. The stock has been beaten down very much and this Candlestick Pattern with the spurt in volume, signals an upside in the stock. The stock is facing a strong resistance of 142 on the Daily Charts, which if is crossed by the stock, will invite a Short Term Buying Interest in the stock. Stock crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 135.02 by making a high of 144.40 and closing at 141.95. The 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) is quoting at 155.30. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 53.84 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (25.86) and the Negative Directional Index (25.45) are quoting at almost the same levels. ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 47.05 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening. 

Hence, it is recommended to buy RCOM only if it trades above 142 for the Targets of 146 & 148, with the strict Stop Loss of 140.50.
 

No comments:

Post a Comment