Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern, which represents complete indecision between the bulls and the bears. An upside retracement from the level of 4920 to 6388 has been drawn on the chart, in which it can be witnessed that NIFTY has closed even below its 50% retracement level, which signals that the bears have made a strong grip in the markets. Due to negative Global Cues (the Unrest in Egypt) NIFTY had a Gap down Opening of almost 60-65 and immediately after covering a bit, again slipped almost 90 points to the day’s low of 5416.65. After the kissing the day’s low and testing a Crucial Support of 5400 (almost), markets bounced back again and covered smartly, helped by OIL, BANKING & FINANCE, CAPITAL GOODS, METALS and AUTO Sectors. Till the second half of session, NIFTY covered almost all the losses of the day, but immediately after the weak opening of European Markets, NIFTY again slipped in the negative territory. In the last hour of trading session, NIFTY again recovered and returned back in the positive territory (12-15 points positive) and made a high of 5526.85 for the day. REALTY & INFRA Stocks dipped almost 6%-12% for the day again, some of them even made their new 52-Week Low. Finally, for the day NIFTY closed at the levels of 5505.90. It was a day of relief, but at the same time purely volatile, if considered the Intraday movement.
Net Selling of Rs. 920.38 Crore in Cash Segment while Net Buying of Rs. 107.34 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.
In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 890.57 Crore was witnessed in Index Options, while, Net Selling was of Rs. 479.66 Crore, of Rs. 279.40 Crore and of Rs. 24.17 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.
NIFTY FEB FUTURE ended with a Premium of 17.65 points to the Spot NIFTY.
Technically, both the Moving Averages tried to give a Positive Crossover, but could not succeed and after converging have again given a Negative Crossover now. The levels of 5400 and 5375 are still acting as Strong Support for NIFTY (on the closing basis). NIFTY after closing below the 50% Retracement level (drawn from 4920 to 6388), signals a cautious approach towards the market and may also touch the level of 38.20% (5375). Now if NIFTY closes above 5600 for 2-3 sessions consecutively, it may witness a pullback till the levels of 5700 and 5750. Currently, 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5623.29 is acting as a good resistance for NIFTY.
On the Economic Front, AUSTRALIA will be coming out with its Q4 House Price Index and National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence for the month of December, RBA Commodity Index SDR for the month of January and also with the RBA Interest Rate Decision for the month of February. Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Manufacturing PMI for the month of January will be announced in CHINA. JAPAN will be coming out with its Monetary Base for the month of January. UK will be announcing its Nationwide Housing Prices, M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals for the month of December, Net Lending to Individuals and Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing for the month of January. Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of January and Unemployment Rate for the month of December will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. GERMANY will be coming out with its Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change for the month of January. Construction Spending for the month of December, ISM Manufacturing and ISM Prices Paid for the month of January and also ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence will be announced in US.
Q3 2011 Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. In INDIA, BLUEDART, GLENMARK, NMDC and SYNDIBANK will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. In GERMANY, Infineon Technologies AG will be posting its Quarterly Numbers today. In US, PFIZER INC., Cummins Inc., Electronic Arts Inc. and Tupperware Brands Corporation will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to avoid making Fresh Investments at this point of time in the Markets.
NIFTY is now trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 5738.25, 5879.37 and 5623.29, respectively. Both the Moving Averages have again given a Negative Crossover, as Short Term Moving average has crossed the Long Term Moving Average from upside to the southward direction. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) have again turned southbound, signaling a bit of more selling pressure to come in.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5530 / 5550 / 5580 levels. At the same time, 5475 / 5440 / 5400 will act as major intraday support levels.
What does Indicators Say?
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 30.05 and 35.32, respectively, showing a negative crossover.
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are -105.28 and -85.01, respectively. a negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 12.76, -DI: 35.36, ADX: 30.73: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicating the development of strength in the current trend.
4. SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these two indicators are 5879.37 and 5738.25. Both the Moving Averages are showing Negative Crossover.
Pre - Market Call:
BANKBARODA Buy at the levels of 869-870 for the Targets of 895 & 905,with the strict Stop Loss of 860.
On the Daily Charts, BANKBARODA has made a Long White Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The candle has also engulfed its previous candle completely. The stock opened below its 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 824.26, but crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 854.42 by making a high of 877.40 and closing at 869.50 for the day. The 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) is quoting at 885.13. The stock is facing a small resistance of 870, which it almost touched by making a high of 877.40. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 52.38 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (16.23) and the Negative Directional Index (16.17) are quoting at almost the same levels. The ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 26.36 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.
Hence, it is recommended to buy BANKBARODA at the levels of 869-870 for the Targets of 895 & 905, with the strict Stop Loss of 860.
UNIONBANK Buy only if it trades above 330 for the Targets of 340 & 345,with the strict Stop Loss of 326.
On the Daily Charts, UNIONBANK has made a Long White Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The candle has also engulfed its previous candle completely. The stock has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 325.99 by making a high of 333.30 and closing at 330.70. It also tried to touch its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 334.54 by making a high of 333.30 for the day. The 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) is quoting at 338.17. The stock is facing a small resistance of 330. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 51.32 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (23.01) is still below the Negative Directional Index (25.43), ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 21.66 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.
Hence, it is recommended to buy UNIONBANK only if it trades above 330 for the Targets of 340 & 345, with the strict Stop Loss of 326.
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