Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 19th January 2011 and Pre Market Calls



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Small White Candlestick, after the formation of a Southern Doji Candlestick. NIFTY had a muted opening of almost 5-10 points in the positive bias. For whole of the session, NIFTY traded very range bound and a very sluggish session was witnessed for the day. BANKING, IT and METALS had a positive movement for whole of the trading session. But a good selling pressure was witnessed in the AIRWAYS, SUGAR and REALTY & INFRA Stocks. A kind of stock specific movement was witnessed, as results season has commenced. For the day, NIFTY made a high of 5730.50, while a low of 5671.25. Finally, for the day NIFTY closed at the levels of 5724.05.

Net Buying of Rs. 72.54 Crore in Cash Segment and of Rs. 2108.33 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 89.45 Crore, of Rs. 1620.97 and of Rs. 405.20 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively, while, Net Selling was witnessed in Stock Options of Rs. 7.29 Crore.     

NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended in Minimal Premium of 8.35 points to the Spot NIFTY.


Technically, both the Moving Averages tried to give a Positive Crossover, but could not succeed and after converging have again given a Negative Crossover now. NIFTY as expected closed yesterday above its previous day’s close, due to which it may now witness a pull back up to the levels of 5750 and 5840. The levels of 5600 and 5580 are acting as Strong Support for NIFTY (on the closing basis).

On the Economic Front, EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with its Current Account and Construction Output for the month of November. Jobless Claims Change, Claimant Count Rate and ILO Unemployment Rate for the month of December, Average Earnings excluding Bonus for the month of November and Leading Indicator Index will be announced in UK. US will be coming out with its MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts and Building Permits for the month of December.

Q3 2011 Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. In India, BAJAJ-AUTO, BAJAJHLDG, HCLTECH, HINDZINC, LICHSGFIN, ORCHIDCHEM, TORRENTPHARMA and WIPRO will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. In US, IGATE CORPORATION, EBAY INC., THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC. and WELLS FARGO & COMPANY will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to avoid making Fresh Investments at this point of time in the Markets and Book Profits at each high of the market.

NIFTY is now again trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5874.90 and 5960.84. Both the Moving Averages have again given a Negative Crossover, as Short Term Moving average has crossed the Long Term Moving Average from upside to the southward direction. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) have again turned southbound, signaling a bit of more selling pressure to come in. 

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5740 / 5775 / 5800 levels. At the same time, 5680 / 5650 / 5620 will act as major intraday support levels.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 38.45 and 39.59, respectively, showing a negative crossover.
2.  MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -75.04 and -26.36, respectively. a negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3.  +DI: 13.71, -DI: 31.48, ADX: 26.91: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicating the development of strength in the current trend.
        4.  SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these two indicators are 5960.84          and 5874.90. Both the Moving Averages are showing Negative Crossover. 

Pre - Market Call:
PFC   Buy at the levels of 283-284 for the Targets of 292 & 294,with the strict Stop Loss of 280.

On the Daily Charts, PFC has made a Long White Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The stock has been beaten down very much and after the announcement of its Q3 FY11 Results the stock has witnessed a good buying interest. The stock is facing a small resistance at the levels of 283-284, which it touched yesterday by making a high of 282.30. The stock is trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 297.18 and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 320.64. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 32.70 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (12.38) is still below the Negative Directional Index (29.72), ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 36.32 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.  

Hence, it is recommended to buy PFC @ 283-284 for the Targets of 292 & 294, with the strict Stop Loss of 280. 

POLARIS  Buy only if it trades above 181 for the Targets of 186 & 188,with the strict Stop Loss of 179.

On the Daily Charts, POLARIS has made a Long White Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The stock is facing a small resistance at the levels of 181, which it touched yesterday by making a high of 180.50. The stock crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 173.09 yesterday by making a high of 180.50 and closing at 178.50. The 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) is quoting at 165.92. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 55.93 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (23.64) is above the Negative Directional Index (17.68), ADX (Average Directional Index) is quoting at 19.72 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.  

Hence, it is recommended to buy POLARIS above 181 for the Targets of 186 & 188, with the strict Stop Loss of 179. 

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