Monday, January 24, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 25th January 2011 and Pre Market Calls



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Spinning Top Candlestick Pattern, which represents complete indecision between the bulls and the bears. A short covering was witnessed in the BANKING & FINANCE and REALTY & INFRA Sector for the day. NIFTY had a muted Opening of almost 20-25 points with the positive bias. For the day, Markets witnessed a dull session with low volume, as F&O Expiry is nearing. NIFTY opened above its important resistance of 5720 at around 5717.10. For the day, NIFTY made a high of 5756, while a low of 5697.75. A kind of stock specific movement was witnessed, as results season has commenced. Finally, for the day NIFTY closed at the levels of 5743.25. It seemed that Market is also waiting for a strong cue to decide its further direction. 

Net Buying of Rs. 63.95 Crore in Cash Segment and of Rs. 431.75 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 943.91 Crore in Cash Segment and of Rs. 595.08 crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 183.36 Crore and of Rs. 548.78 Crore was witnessed in index Options and Stock Futures, respectively, while, Net Selling was of Rs. 261.00 Crore and of Rs. 40.09 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, respectively.  

Technically, both the Moving Averages tried to give a Positive Crossover, but could not succeed and after converging have again given a Negative Crossover now. NIFTY may now witness a pull back up to the levels of 5750 and 5840. The levels of 5600 and 5580 are acting as Strong Support for NIFTY (on the closing basis).

On the Economic Front, AUSTRALIA will be coming out with its Q4 Consumer Price Index. BoJ will be announcing its Interest Rate Decision and Corporate Service Price for the month of December will be announced in JAPAN. RBI (Reserve Bank of India) will be coming out with its Periodical Credit Policy Review in INDIA. GERMANY will be coming out with its Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for the month of February. Q4 Gross Domestic Product, Index of Services and Public Sector Net Borrowing for the month of December will be announced in UK. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the month of November, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for the month of January and ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence will be announced in US.

Q3 2011 Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. In INDIA, APIL, CEATLTD, DEEPAKFERT, DRREDDY, ESSELPACK, GHCL, GRASIM, HINDUNILVR, IDBI, STER, TATACOFFEE, TATASPONGE, ULTRACEMCO, UNIPHOS and WWIL will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. In US, DUPONT, HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC., JOHNSON & JOHNSON, DSP GROUP and YAHOO! INC. will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. In GERMANY, SIEMENS AG will be posting its Quarterly Numbers today.  Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to avoid making Fresh Investments at this point of time in the Markets and Book Profits at each high of the market.

NIFTY is now again trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5821.29 and 5916.79. Both the Moving Averages have again given a Negative Crossover, as Short Term Moving average has crossed the Long Term Moving Average from upside to the southward direction. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) have again turned southbound, signaling a bit of more selling pressure to come in. 

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5760 / 5790 / 5820 levels. At the same time, 5720 / 5690 / 5660 will act as major intraday support levels.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 41.83 and 39.34, respectively, showing a negative crossover.
2.  MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -78.82 and -65.98, respectively. a negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3.  +DI: 15.07, -DI: 27.36, ADX: 29.03: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicating the development of strength in the current trend.
        4.  SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these two indicators are 5916.79          and 5821.29. Both the Moving Averages are showing Negative Crossover. 

Pre - Market Call:
MOSERBAER  Buy only if it trades above 58.50 for the Targets of 60.50 & 61.50,with the strict Stop Loss of 57.90.

On the Daily Charts, MOSERBAER has made a Long White Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The stock crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 57.62 and 58.10, respectively, by making a high of 59.40 and closing at 58.75 for the day. The stock is facing a small resistance of 58.50, which it almost crossed by closing at 58.75. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 52.56 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (25.69) is above the Negative Directional Index (21.56), ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 16.60 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.  

Hence, it is recommended to buy MOSERBAER only if it trades above 58.50 for the Targets of 60.50 & 61.50, with the strict Stop Loss of 57.90. 
EDUCOMP  Buy only if it trades above 520 for the Targets of 540 & 548,with the strict Stop Loss of 514.

On the Daily Charts, EDUCOMP has made a White Opening Marubozu Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The stock crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 511.75 by making a high of 521 and closing at 518.10 for the day. The 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) is quoting at 533.74. The stock is facing a small resistance of 520, which it almost crossed by making a high of 521. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 50.61 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (23.32) and the Negative Directional Index (23.34) are almost at the same levels. ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 19.02 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.  

Hence, it is recommended to buy EDUCOMP only if it trades above 520 for the Targets of 540 & 548, with the strict Stop Loss of 514. 

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