From 5904.60 to 5654.55, NIFTY lost almost 250.05 points and ended in Red last week on Friday (21st January 2011) at 5654.55 losing around 4.42% as compared to the last week’s closing of 5904.60. Last week NIFTY witnessed a total sentimental, new based and data driven movement. IIP (Index of Industrial Production) Data for the month of November, Weekly and Monthly Inflation Numbers and INFOSYSTCH Q3FY11 Numbers were in focus last week. On Monday, NIFTY dropped almost 135 points driven by negative news flows in Asian and European Markets. An unexpected selling in MINING & METAL Stocks was witnessed due to flooding in Coking Mines of Australia, Bangladesh’s Stock Market also faced a Lower Freeze and the Indonesian Markets were down almost 4% due to rising Inflation in the country. European Markets slipped with banks under pressure and sovereign-debt concerns in the spotlight after weekend talk that Portugal is being pressured to take a bailout. On Wednesday, markets witnessed a Short Covering with BANKING, REALTY & INFRA, OIL & GAS and METAL Stocks. India came out with the IIP Data for the month of November which were at 2.7% Vs 11.3% (YoY) and 2.5% Vs 10.8% (MoM), worse than what the market expected. Immediately after the announcement of Data, Markets took a knock and CAPITAL GOODS, OIL & GAS, METALS, REALTY & INFRA were the hardest hit Sectors. NIFTY reverted from the day’s low due to Positive News Flow in Europe. The Portuguese government sold 1.25 billion euros ($1.62 billion) of government bonds, in a key test of credit markets amid speculation the country could eventually be forced to seek a fiscal bailout. Also, Germany's economy grew 3.6% in 2010 in price-adjusted terms, posting its biggest surge since the nation's reunification. On Thursday, Markets reacted to the INFOSYSTCH Results and Weekly Inflation Numbers. INFOSYSTCH Q3 FY11 Numbers were not according to the market expectation. Again a Fear of more tightening by RBI (Reserve Bank of India) gripped among the BANKING Stocks, and they took away the markets by almost 110-115 points. On Friday, again markets reacted to the Monthly Inflation Numbers, which were 8.43% (Dec) vs 7.48% (Nov). NIFTY closed almost 120 points down. Panic Selling mainly sentimental took away the markets again, fear gripped the investors and FIIs also continued their selling due to which BUYING was almost ABSENT in the markets. A brutal selloff was witnessed all over the counters, like, METALS, IT, FERTLIZER, SUGAR, TEXTILE, AUTO, OMCs, CONSUMER DURABLES, BANKING & FINANCE, REALTY & INFRA and CAPITAL GOODS Sectors. NIFTY continuously breached all its important support levels for the week by making a low of 5639.65 and closing at 5654.55. It was an absolute Roller Coaster Ride for the NIFTY, if its Intraday moves are considered into.
Last Week, Net Selling of Rs. 3671.22 Crore by FIIs while Net Buying of Rs. 2974.46 Crore by DIIs was witnessed in the Cash Segment.
Technically, NIFTY has made a Long Black Candlestick after forming a Bearish Engulfing Pattern Candlestick, proving the previous week’s candle’s formation. If a look at last three Week’s Candles is taken, it appears to be a Bearish Three Outside Down Candlestick Formation. The reliability of this pattern is very high, but still a confirmation in the form of a black candlestick with a lower close or a gap-down is considered. NIFTY finally breached its strong support of 5750 levels (on the closing basis), which it touched many times after correcting from its life time high. This support was breached on the very first day of the week proving it to be a very tough week for the markets. Last week it was able to make a high of 5907.25. NIFTY breached its 40-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 5648.91 by making a low of 5639.65 but it managed to close at 5654.55. It is also trading below its 20-Days EMA of 5927.67.
If a look at International Markets is taken, majority of the Asian Indices have retraced back from their important resistance levels after touching them, raising the expectation of more of a correction in next coming weeks. On the flip side, both the European and American Indices have crossed their important resistance levels and have become bullish for the next week.
The Results Season has commenced all over the Globe since last week. Next week, in India Big Boys like, AXISBANK, INDUSINDBANK, LT, ESSAROIL, PFC, RUCHISOYA, TCS, BAJAJFINSERV, CONCOR, EXIDEIND, GAIL, HCLTECH, IBREALEST, PETRONET, RIIL, UFLEX, BAJAJ-AUTO, HINDZINC, ORCHIDCHEM, JSWENERGY, SRF, BIOCON, TVSMOTOR, KOTAKBANK, YESBANK, CORPBANK, PRAJIND, MAHABANK, BANKINDIA, PNB, RELIANCE, RAYMOND, BHEL, TECHM, HCC, WIPRO and ASHOKLEY will be coming out with their Q3 2011 Results. On International level, MCDONALDS, APPLE INC., CITIGROUP INC., IGATE CORPORATION and eBAY INC. will be coming out with their Quarterly Results in US. In France, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO. will be coming out with its Quarterly Results. As, Results Season and Budgets (Railway and Financial) are in the offing, investors are suggested to accumulate the BUDGET Driven Sectors Stocks like FERTILIZER, PHARMA, RAILWAY, METAL, CAPITAL GOODS, EDUCATION, etc.
On the Global front, in ASIA, China will be announcing its inflation and economic growth figures and Australian mining giants will release their quarterly reports. In EUROPE, British luxury fashion house Burberry and brewer SABMiller will issue trading updates next week. In Germany, the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment will be released. In US, corporate earnings season gets into full gear next week, with headline results from Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America and Apple, among others.
For the next week, the levels of 5780 & 5880 will act as an important resistance, whereas the levels of 5550 & 5475 will act as an important support for NIFTY.
No comments:
Post a Comment