Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Opening Marubozu Candlestick Pattern. It was a day for bears and such a bearish rally should cause concern among the bulls. An upside retracement drawn from the low made on 03rd November, 2009 of 4538.50 to the high made on 05th November, 2010 of 6388.50, as drawn on the chart, it can be witnessed that NIFTY has breached its 50.00% retracement level of 5433 by making a low of 5432.35 and closing much below it at 5303.40. NIFTY had a flat opening of almost 20-25 points in the positive territory and it traded range bound till first two to three hours of the trading session, but immediately after that it started dipping for the day. Till the last hour of trading session, NIFTY traded at the levels of 5350, but suddenly it melted and made a low of 5303.40 (down almost 92 points for the day). Bloodbath was witnessed in REALTY & INFRA, BANKING, AUTO, OIL & GAS, CONSUMER DURABLES and CAPITAL GOODS Sector. REALTY & INFRA Stocks took a deep cut for the day, down almost 4%-17% for the day. Finally, for the day NIFTY ended at 5303.40, breaching a Crucial Support of 5370 on the closing basis, hence, signaling a good selloff again for the coming sessions.
Net Selling of Rs. 726.54 Crore in Cash Segment and of Rs. 499.19 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.
In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 208.07 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures, while, Net Selling of Rs. 484.98 Crore, of Rs. 214.42 Crore and of Rs. 7.86 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Options, respectively.
NIFTY FEB FUTURE ended in a Premium of 7.45 points to the Spot NIFTY.
Technically, NIFTY has completed the Retracements drawn from the level of 4920 to 6388, but has also given a closing below another larger Retracement Level drawn from the low made on 03rd November, 2009 of 4538.50 to the high made on 05th November, 2010 of 6388.50, as drawn on the chart, it can be witnessed that NIFTY has breached its 50.00% retracement level of 5433 by making a low of 5432.35 and closing much below it at 5303.40. It has also breached the Lower Trendline drawn from the low of 5690.35 made on 26th November, 2010 to the lower low of 5459.55 made on 28th January, 2011. Yesterday, it gave a closing below its Crucial Support of 5370. Earlier, the 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crossed the 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) from upside and the Negative Crossover of 20-Days EMA over the 200-Days SMA from reflects more selling pressure in the coming sessions. Now if NIFTY closes above 5465 for 2-3 sessions consecutively, it may witness a pullback till the levels of 5520 and 5600. Currently, 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5627.37 is acting as a good resistance for NIFTY.
The way the REALTY & INFRA Stocks are crashing day-by-day and other Big Boys are also becoming weak day-by-day, it seems that Market is not in a mood to revert, but is in a mood to test a deep correction further.
On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Consumer Confidence Index, Consumer Confidence Households, Machine Tool Orders, Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index for the month of January and Core Machinery Orders for the month of December. BRC Shop Price Index, Goods Trade Balance and Total Trade Balance for the month of December will be announced in UK. GERMANY will be coming out with its Trade Balance and Current Account for the month of December. MBA Mortgage Applications will be announced in US.
Q3 2011 Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. In INDIA, BPCL, BRITANNIA, GMRINFRA, GMDC, HONEYWELL AUTO, M&M, NIRMA, PATNI, RCF, RECLTD, UBHOLDINGS and McDOWELL-N will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. In FRANCE, Peugeot SA, Sanofi Aventis SA and AIR France-KLM will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. In US, The Coca Cola Co., Metlife Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. will be posting their Quarterly Numbers today. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to avoid making Fresh Investments at this point of time in the Markets.
NIFTY is now trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 5588.52, 5823.92 and 5627.37, respectively. Both the Moving Averages have again given a Negative Crossover, as Short Term Moving average has crossed the Long Term Moving Average from upside to the southward direction. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) have again turned southbound, signaling a bit of more selling pressure to come in.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5335 / 5360 / 5400 levels. At the same time, 5280 / 5240 / 5225 will act as major intraday support levels.
What does Indicators Say?
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 28.04 and 31.67, respectively, showing a negative crossover.
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are -139.24 and -116.67, respectively. a negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 10.01, -DI: 29.87, ADX: 35.84: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicating the development of strength in the current trend.
4. SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these two indicators are 5823.92 and 5588.52. Both the Moving Averages are showing Negative Crossover.
Pre - Market Calls:
NMDC Buy only if it trades above 273 for the Targets of 280 & 283,with the strict Stop Loss of 270.
On the Daily Charts, NMDC has made a Long White Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The stock is facing a small resistance at the levels of 273, which it crossed yesterday by making a high of 2275.65. The stock is trading above its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 267.67. It also opened above its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 264 and 268.02, by opening at 269 for the day and it even closed above them at 273.30. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 57.56 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (20.35) is above the Negative Directional Index (18.32), ADX (Average Directional Index) has gained strength on the Intraday Charts and is quoting at 18.32 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.
Hence, it is recommended to buy NMDC only if it trades above 273 for the Targets of 280 & 283, with the strict Stop Loss of 270.
FORTIS Buy at the levels of 146-147 for the Targets of 152 & 154,with the strict Stop Loss of 144.
On the Daily Charts, FORTIS has made a White Opening Marubozu Candlestick, with a good spurt in Volume. The stock has been beaten down severely and has witnessed a good Buying Interest after the announcement of its Excellent Q3 FY11 Numbers. The stock crossed is trading above its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 138.17, the 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA are quoting at 142.94 and 153.91, respectively. The closing above the levels of 50-Days SMA, will invite more Buying. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is quoting at 63.74 on the Charts (RSI below 50 indicates weakness or confirms the Selling signal). The Positive Directional Index (30.51) is above the Negative Directional Index (16.85), ADX (Average Directional Index) is quoting at 28.74 on the Daily Charts. ADX’s value above 20 and near 40 indicates that the underlying trend is strengthening.
Hence, it is recommended to buy FORTIS at the levels of 146-147 for the Targets of 152 & 154, with the strict Stop Loss of 144.
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