Yesterday, NIFTY made a Small Black Candlestick Pattern. NIFTY had a flat opening with a negative bias, but moved slightly in the Green Trajectory to mark an intraday high of 5499.35, but completely failed to even touch the level of 5500. NIFTY traded very range bound till the first half of trading session in the range of just 15-20 points, but with a negative bias. Markets started to feel the heat before the opening of European Markets itself, with Rate Sensitive Sectors feeling it the most. BANKING & FINANCE, REALTY & INFRA, AUTO and METAL Sector Stock melted the most due to dual effect of Greek Debt Crisis and the high expectation of tightening measures by RBI (Reserve Bank of India) on the other day. Although the Index Stocks were not beaten down much, but the heat was more felt by the MID CAP Stocks. NIFTY after sticking to the levels of 5450 for long, dipped swiftly to the day’s low of 5438.95 and finally ended the day at 5447.50.
Technically, NIFTY has completed the southward movement of Fibonnaci Retracement drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the Low of 5177.70 (11th February, 2011). NIFTY has also completed another longer Extension Level drawn from the Low of 4786.45 (25th May, 2010) to the High of 6335.90 (08th November, 2010). NIFTY on the closing basis yesterday breached the 50% level of this Extension marked on the chart, giving another hint that it may again test the levels of 5380. Earlier, a Negative Crossover was witnessed between 200-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA. The Negative Crossover of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) will now lead to more southward movement in NIFTY. Yesterday too, the 20-Days EMA played a role of a good resistance level and NIFTY could not even touch it by making an intraday high and also ended much below it at 5447.50. Now the level of 5635 is acting as a Short Term Resistance, for NIFTY, where the 50-Days SMA lies too, whereas the level of 5320 proved to be a Good Support. Markets are waiting for an important Trigger to make a big move on the either way; the Trigger may be at the National Level or at the International Level.
On the Economic Front, UK will be coming out with its Retail Sales for the month of May. QI Employment Change and Consumer Price Index for the month of May will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be coming out with its Building Permits and Housing Starts for the month of May, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Q1 Current Account, and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Survey for the month of June. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be announcing its CREDIT POLICY in India.
Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay away from the markets and avoid heavy investments at this time due to Uncertain Market Scenario both at the International and National Levels.
NIFTY is again trading below its 20-Days EMA, 50-Days SMA and 200-Days SMA of 5507.47, 5616.35 and 5757.85, respectively. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) are signaling a short term northward move in the markets, due to the positive crossovers.
What does Indicators Say?
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 42.39 and 46.43, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 36.79 and 3.90, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 20.93, -DI: 27.12, ADX: 14.80: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicating that the market is in the trading range right now.
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these indicators are 5757.85, 5616.35 and 5507.47.
Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (15th June, 2011) Trading Session:
Net Selling of Rs. 170.56 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 1540.41 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.
Net Selling of Rs. 15.65 Crore and of Rs. 553.52 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 833.58 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.
In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 457.81 Crore, of Rs. 527.53 Crore, of Rs. 512.84 Crore and of Rs. 42.24 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.
NIFTY JUN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 3.10 Points to NIFTY Spot.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
ACC: Can dip to the levels of 978/972, if breaches the level of 990.
AMBUJACEM: Can dip to the levels of 129/128, if breaches the level of 132.
DLF: Can dip to the levels of 220/218, if breaches the level of 225.
HINDALCO: Can dip to the levels of 170/169, if breaches the level of 173.
IDFC: Can dip to the levels of 123/122, if breaches the level of 125.
GRASIM: Can dip to the levels of 2180/2170, if breaches the level of 2200.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5465 / 5490 / 5520 levels. At the same time, 5420 / 5375 / 5345 will act as major intraday support levels.
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