Thursday, July 14, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 15th July 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern, with higher upper shadow, which means NIFTY tried to move on but could not sustain that up move due to selling pressure, indicating still the Bears are more active then the Bulls, they are initiating sell at every high the market attains. NIFTY witnessed a negative opening of almost 15-20 points, following weak Asian market cues on the back of Moody’s warning for a downgrade in US’ credit rating. After opening in negative terrain NIFTY grinded more grounds and made a low of 5541.70, which led to almost 40 points in the negative terrain. After kissing the day’s low NIFTY recovered a bit and traded absolutely flat awaiting the Monthly Inflation Data for the month of June. For the month of June, the wholesale price index (WPI) rose an annual 9.44% compared to 8.66% reported earlier, driven by higher manufactured goods and fuel prices. The markets, however, shrugged the inflation data and reentered green terrain. It then gathered momentum and kept on piling gains till it hit intraday highs. For the day, NIFTY made a high of 5653.95 (marking a run of almost 110 points from the day’s low). Even the European Markets opened in Red, but recovered soon which also pushed up the market. This rally was primarily led by Interest Rate Sensitive Stocks, BAKING & FINANCE, REALTY & INFRA, AUTO and METAL. But in the last half an hour of trading sudden dip of almost 54 points from the day’s high. Sudden profit taking emerged as the indices fell back and managed to end flat in the positive terrain. Hence, for the day, NIFTY ended on the positive note at 5599.80.

Technically, NIFTY has completed the southward movement of Fibonnaci Retracement drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the Low of 5177.70 (11th February, 2011). NIFTY has also completed another longer Extension Level drawn from the Low of 4786.45 (25th May, 2010) to the High of 6335.90 (08th November, 2010). After making a low of 5195.90 on 20th June, 2011, NIFTY again reverted and entered the Extension marked on the chart. Yesterday, NIFTY crossed the level of 50.00% (5620.13) of the Extension drawn by making a high of 5740.40 while intraday trading by making a high of 5653.95, but it closed much below it at 5599.80, i.e. above the 38.20% Level (5561.17) of the Retracement drawn from the high of 6335.90. Right now, the 50-Days SMA of 5504.30 is acting as a Short Term Support for NIFTY on the closing Basis. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact, but at the same time both the 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 20-Days have given a positive crossover, which signals a positive move for some of the trading sessions ahead. Now, the 200-Days SMA of 5750 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 5170 proved to be a Good Support.

On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) for the month of June. Trade Balance for the month of May and also the Bank Stress Test Info will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be coming out with its Consumer Price Index, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production for the month of June, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the month of July.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to focus on Bottom Fishing and invest in the markets for short term only, as markets are still prone to Uncertain Scenario both at the International and National Levels.

Q1 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally. BALAJITELE, CAMLIN, ESSELPACK, GUJNRECOKE, JKPAPER, TATASPONGE and TTKPRESTIGE will be announcing their Q1 FY11 Results tomorrow in INDIA. Citigroup Inc will be announcing their results tomorrow in US.

NIFTY is again trading above its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA of 5566.29 and 5504.30, respectively, but at the same time is still below its 200-Days SMA of 5733.35.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 53.79 and 55.53, respectively, showing a short term negative crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 110.55 and 68.18, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 29.65, -DI: 23.05, ADX: 19.22: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicating that the market is in the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these indicators are 5733.35, 5504.30 and 5566.29.

Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (14th July, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 211.46 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 76.81 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 534.15 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 99.89 Crore and of Rs. 165.09 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment, respectively.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 105.75 Crore and of Rs. 80.15 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, respectively, while, Net Buying of Rs. 93.50 Crore and of Rs. 169.22 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively.

NIFTY JULY FUTURE ended at a Premium of 0.45 Points to NIFTY Spot.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

ACC:                Can touch the levels of 995/1000, if crosses the level of 980.
AMBUJACEM:    Can touch the levels of 128.50/129, if crosses the level of 126.
DLF:                 Can touch the levels of 240/242, if crosses the level of 235.
IDFC:                Can touch the levels of 143/144, if crosses the level of 140.
MARUTI:           Can touch the levels of 1195/1200, if crosses the level of 1175.
SBIN:                Can touch the levels of 2500/2510, if crosses the level of 2470.
TATAMOTORS:  Can touch the levels of 1095/1110, if crosses the level of 1070.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5620 / 5650 / 5690 levels. At the same time, 5560 / 5520 / 5480 will act as major intraday support levels. 




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