Yesterday, NIFTY made a Short Black Candlestick Pattern, with
higher upper shadow, which means NIFTY tried to move on but could not sustain
that up move due to selling pressure, indicating still the Bears are more
active then the Bulls, they are initiating sell at every high the market
attains. NIFTY is trading in a very
small range of just 60 points, that too with high volatility since last four
trading sessions. Hence, still a proper direction lead is not clear for it,
although market is moving in full synchronization with the International
Markets. NIFTY witnessed a negative
opening of almost 12-15 points, tracking unfavorable global cues. However,
a sudden surge in buying saw NIFTY not only writing off the early losses, but
also reaching to the intraday high of 5578.90. NIFTY, however, felt the real
pressure as soon as the afternoon session commenced. A strong bout of
negativity pushed the market into the negative terrain. Such was the intensity
of the selling pressure that the market was unable to recover from the losses
throughout the day. European Markets registered a flat opening almost in Green
territory. CONSUMER DURABLE, REALTY and BANKING Sectors dipped the markets
southwards yesterday. For the day, NIFTY ended at 5541.60.
Technically, NIFTY has completed
the southward movement of Fibonnaci Retracement drawn from the High of 6338.50
(08th November, 2010) to the Low of 5177.70 (11th
February, 2011). NIFTY has also completed another longer Extension Level drawn
from the Low of 4786.45 (25th May, 2010) to the High of 6335.90 (08th
November, 2010). After making a low of 5195.90 on 20th June, 2011,
NIFTY again reverted and entered the Extension marked on the chart. Yesterday,
NIFTY opened much below the level of 50.00% (5620.13) of the Extension drawn at
5554.60 and only made a high of 5578.90 for the day, but during the session it
slipped to 5532.70, i.e., below the 38.20% Level (5561.17) of the Retracement
drawn from the high of 6335.90 and closed below it. It breached the 20-Days EMA
of 5568.68 by opening below it; however it crossed it during the trading by
making a high of 5578.90, but couldn’t close above it. Currently, the 50-Days
SMA of 5506.70 is acting as a Short Term Support for NIFTY on the closing
Basis, as if it breaches NIFTY may again take a dip to the levels of 5480. A
Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA
is still intact, but at the same time both the 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving
Average) and 20-Days have given a positive crossover, which signals a positive
move for some of the trading sessions ahead. Now, the 200-Days SMA of 5720 is
playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis,
whereas the level of 5170 proved to be a Good Support for the long term.
On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its IFO
– Expectations, IFO – Business Climate and IFO – Current Assessment for the
month of July. Industrial New Orders for the month of May will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION.
Traders are suggested to trade
cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas,
Investors are suggested to focus on Bottom Fishing and invest in the markets
for short term only, as markets are still prone to Uncertain Scenario both at
the International and National Levels.
Q1 FY11 Results Season is running
all over the Financial World. Hence, here is a quick look at some important
results to be announced domestically and internationally. AKZOINDIA, AXISBANK, COLPAL, IBREALEST, JETAIRWAYS, NIIT, PRAJIND,
TATAELXSI, TEXMACO, THERMAX and UNIONBANK
will be announcing their Q1 FY11 Results tomorrow in INDIA. Caterpillar Inc, Xerox
Corp and McDonalds Corp will be
announcing their results tomorrow in US.
NIFTY is again trading above its 50-Days
SMA of 5507.81, but at the same time is below its 20-Days EMA and 200-Days SMA
of 5568.68 and 5720.35, respectively.
What does Indicators Say?
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 69.97 and 79.57, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 25.92, -DI: 19.98, ADX: 17.59: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicating that the market is in the trading range right now.
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these indicators are 5720.35, 5507.81 and 5568.68.
Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (21st July, 2011)
Trading Session:
Net Selling of Rs. 577.64 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 364.58 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.
Net Selling of Rs. 83.97 Crore and of Rs. 1566.49 Crore was witnessed in Mutual
Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively,
whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1908.11 was witnessed in Others Segment.
In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 150.58 Crore, of Rs. 125.82 Crore and of Rs. 107.20 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and
Stock Futures, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 19.02 Crore was witnessed in Stock Options.
NIFTY JULY FUTURE ended at a Premium of 2.60
Points to NIFTY Spot.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
BHARTIARTL: Can touch the levels of 401/403, if crosses the level of 395.
AXISBANK: Can dip to the levels of 1225/1215, if
breaches the level of 1240.
HDFCBANK: Can dip to the levels of 488/485, if
breaches the level of 494.
JPASSOCIAT:
Can dip
to the levels of 73/72.60, if breaches the level of 74.50.
KOTAKBANK: Can dip to the levels of 465/460, if breaches
the level of 474.
RCOM: Can
dip to the levels of 88.30/87.70, if breaches the level of 90.
SESAGOA: Can dip to the levels of 272/270, if
breaches the level of 278.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5570 / 5600 / 5630 levels. At the same time, 5500 / 5475 / 5430 will act as major intraday support levels.
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