Monday, July 25, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 26th July 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern, signaling that the market advanced significantly from open to close during the day under strong buying pressure and buyers were aggressive. NIFTY witnessed a flat opening, but it immediately slipped into red on the back of weak Asian markets and soon registered an intraday low of 5616.70.  However, buying soon emerged as indices managed to break the day before closing and entered into positive terrain. Nevertheless, after trading range-bound in the green terrain for nearly an hour, the indices slipped back to red zone. For a couple of hours, the Markets juggled between the red and green terrains. Post an hour into afternoon session; the markets received a shot in the arm, sending NIFTY to the day’s high of 5700.55. However, last hour selling led the indices a little lower in the positive terrain at the level of 5680.30. TELECEOM, AUTO and METAL Sector Stocks led the markets to the intraday highs and helped them to close in Green.

Technically, NIFTY has completed the southward movement of Fibonnaci Retracement drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the Low of 5177.70 (11th February, 2011). NIFTY has also completed another longer Extension Level drawn from the Low of 4786.45 (25th May, 2010) to the High of 6335.90 (08th November, 2010). After making a low of 5195.90 on 20th June, 2011, NIFTY again reverted and entered the Extension marked on the chart. Yesterday, NIFTY opened and maintained well above the level of 50.00% (5620.13) of the Extension drawn at 5554.60 throughout the trading session till the closure. It closed at the level of 5680.30 and crossed the level of 5700 by making a high of 5700.55 in intraday. Currently, the 50-Days SMA of 5513.22 is acting as a Short Term Support for NIFTY on the closing Basis, as if it breaches NIFTY may again take a dip to the levels of 5480. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact, but at the same time both the 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 20-Days have given a positive crossover, which signals a positive move for some of the trading sessions ahead. Now, the 200-Days SMA of 5720 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 5170 proved to be a Good Support for the long term.

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for the month of August. Q2 Gross Domestic Product and Index of Services for the month of May will be announced in UK. US will be coming out with its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the month of May, News Home Sales for the month of June, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Consumer Confidence for the month of July. RBI (Reserve Bank of India) will be coming out with its Credit Policy in INDIA.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to focus on Bottom Fishing and invest in the markets for short term only, as markets are still prone to Uncertain Scenario both at the International and National Levels.

Q1 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally. APIL, ASIANPAINTS, BHEL, CAIRN, GLENMARK, GTOFFSHORE, JSWSTEEL, MRPL, MARUTI, MERCK, OPTOCIRCUI, PIDILITEIND, SHOPPERSTOP, SRTRANSFIN, TTML, THOMASCOOK and WWIL will be announcing their Q1 FY11 Results tomorrow in INDIA. Deutsche Bank AG will be announcing its results tomorrow in GERMANY. BP PLC and GLAXOSMITKLINE PLC will be announcing their results tomorrow in UK. Eastman Kodak Co, Ford Motor Co, Hershey Co, Cummins Inc, Western Union Co, T Rowe Price Group Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Dominos Pizza Inc and Electronic Arts Inc will be announcing their results tomorrow in US.

NIFTY is again trading above its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA of 5584.94 and 5513.22, respectively, but at the same time is still below its 200-Days SMA of 5715.39.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 59.09 and 54.31, respectively, showing a short term negative crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 45.43 and 69.86, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 32.47, -DI: 16.12, ADX: 19.03: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicating that the market is in the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): The values of these indicators are 5715.39, 5513.22 and 5584.94.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (25th July, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 315.72 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 345.83 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 112.49 Crore and of Rs. 686.69 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 3295.71 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 79.15 Crore, of Rs. 552.05 Crore and of Rs. 5.37 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 290.75 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures.

NIFTY JULY FUTURE ended at a Premium of 10.35 Points to NIFTY Spot.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1380/1390, if crosses the level of 1340.
DRREDDY:        Can touch the levels of 1615/1625, if crosses the level of 1595.
M&M:               Can touch the levels of 760/762, if crosses the level of 750.
RCOM:              Can touch the levels of 115/118, if crosses the level of 110.
RPOWER:          Can touch the levels of 120/121, if crosses the level of 118.
TATASTEEL:     Can touch the levels of 604/606, if crosses the level of 594-595.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5720 / 5750 / 5780 levels. At the same time, 5650 / 5610 / 5580 will act as major intraday support levels. 

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