Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 10th August 2011



Yesterday, markets extended their losing streak to the sixth consecutive session, hitting their lowest in more than 14 months, amid a global equities selloff triggered by fears that political leaders are failing to tackle the US and Europe debt crises. IT Sector was among the biggest losers as the global economic turmoil dented the outlook for the outsourcing business. Post a gap down opening, with NIFTY tanking over 170 points and testing intraday lows of 4946.45. The 50-share index recouped over 220 points as the trading sentiment turned upbeat in the mid-day session, and pulled the bourses in the positive terrain. However, the enthusiasm among investors fizzled out as European benchmarks kick started with heavy losses and NIFTY again came back to the levels of 5050. It was a day to be remembered of extreme volatility with sharp trading moves coupled with heavy volume traded for the day. In the last hour of trading markets again bounced back a bit, felt resilient to close below the levels of 5050 and zoomed almost to the levels of 5090, hence, marking a close of 5072.85 for the day. Other than IT, PHARMA, METAL and CONSUMER DURABLE Sectors were responsible for drowning the market.

Fear all over the Globe is the main cause of such fierceful crash within a short span of time. Still more bad news is in the offing regarding the International Economies. Indian Markets are just paying the cost of Globalization, hence affected to that level much. Right now, no signs are visible for a Pullback, but at the same time, traders and investors should be ready for a sharp pullback, as this crash is coming with huge Gaps and with volume backed by fears more.

Technically, NIFTY took another hard knock by breaching its important support level of 5000 in the opening, and made a low of 4946.45. It opened much below the lower trendline marked from the low of 5177.70 (02nd February, 2011) to the low of 5195.90 (26th June, 2011). NIFTY breached this lower trendline on closing basis yesterday by closing at 5072.85. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA have again made a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY again breached all its important support levels just in a day of trading. Now, the level of 5275 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 5000 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. The so-called level of 4800 will soon be achieved, was predicted day before yesterday. And, yesterday NIFTY marked a low of 4946.45 immediately after opening, making a fear in the mind of market traders that it may touch 4800 level anytime in the offing. Hence, the level of 4800 still remains an important support level for NIFTY on the closing basis, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties.

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Wholesale Price Index for the month of July. ECB (European Central Bank) Monthly Report will be declared by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. UK will be coming out with its CB Leading Indicator Index for the month of June. Trade Balance for the month of June, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.  

Q1 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally. ABGSHIP, ADANIENT, APOLLOHOSP, FINANTECH, GLAXO, HANUNG, HOTELEELA, IOC, INDSWIFTLAB, LAKSHMIMACH, MPS, MTNL, NHPC, RECLTD, RUCHISOYA, TANLA, TATAPOWER and TATAGLOBAL will be announcing their Q1 FY12 Results tomorrow in INDIA.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5676.12, 5500.78 and 5415.67, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have also reached to their oversold zone and are indicating a pull back in the short term.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 24.16 and 34.93, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -106.94 and -49.30, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 12.04, -DI: 43.08, ADX: 22.36: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicating that the market is in the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of of these indicators are 5676.12, 5500.78 and 5415.67.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (09th August, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 2104.56 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 2551.00 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 110.15 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 965.33 Crore and of Rs. 348.32 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades and Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 1978.11 Crore, of Rs. 718.87 Crore and of Rs. 22.54 Crore was witnessed in Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 168.52 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures.  

NIFTY AUG FUTURE ended at 10.55 Points Premium to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BAJAJ-AUTO:   Can touch the levels of 1445/1455, if crosses the level of 1430.
BHARTIARTL:    Can touch the levels of 415/418, if crosses the level of 408.
BHEL:              Can touch the levels of 1770/1780, if crosses the level of 1740.
DLF:                Can touch the levels of 207/208, if crosses the level of 203.
GRASIM:           Can touch the levels of 2190/2200, if crosses the level of 2160.
JPASSOCIAT:    Can touch the levels of 64/65, if crosses the level of 62.

CIPLA:              Can dip to the levels of 288/286, if breaches the level of 292.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5100 / 5130 / 5160 levels. At the same time, 5050 / 5020 / 4980 will act as major intraday support levels.  

  

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