Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 18th August 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Bullish Inverted Hammer Candlestick Pattern. If the next day opens above the real body of the inverted hammer, it means that those who shorted at the opening or closing of the inverted hammer day are losing money. The longer the market holds above the inverted hammer’s real body, the more likely these shorts will attempt to cover their positions. This may ignite a rally as a result of covered short positions, which may then inspire the bottom pickers to take long positions. Markets started on a strong note, despite weak Asian stocks and disappointing US housing starts numbers. NIFTY continued to trade in the positive terrain throughout the morning session and registered intraday high of 5112.15. However, markets fell from those levels soon on the back of significant profit booking at higher levels. Sentiments deteriorated further as the European markets opened on an extremely weak note, pushing the domestic bourses into the negative terrain. NIFTY registered a low of 5017.25 for the day. A volatile trading session was observed. Due to Positive Global Cues, NIFTY marked a Gap Up opening of almost 50 points. The Mid Cap and Small Cap Stocks witnessed brutal selling pressure across the board. IT, FMCG and CAPITAL GOODS Sector helped the NIFTY to turn Green, however, the Rate Sensitive Sectors like REALTY & INFRA, AUTO and BANKING & FINANCE were the biggest losers for the day. At the last half an hour of trading, a pullback was witnessed, which helped the NIFTY in registering a Close of 5056.60.

Fear all over the Globe is the main cause of such fierceful crash within a short span of time. Still more bad news is in the offing regarding the International Economies. Indian Markets are just paying the cost of Globalization, hence affected to that level much. Right now, no signs are visible for a Pullback, but at the same time, traders and investors should be ready for a sharp pullback, as this crash is coming with huge Gaps and with volume backed by fears more.

Technically, NIFTY opened below the lower trendline marked from the low of 5177.70 (02nd February, 2011) to the low of 5195.90 (26th June, 2011) at 5125.75. NIFTY is trading below this lower trendline on closing basis, since last eight trading sessions. Yesterday it marked the closing of 5056.60, although it breached the crucial support of 5050 in intraday trading by marking a low 5017.25. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA have again made a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 5000 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. The so-called level of 4800 will soon be achieved by NIFTY in the coming period, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 14-Months Low marked 4946.45 by NIFTY (09th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5274.36 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. 

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Leading Economic Index and Coincident Index for the month of June. Retail Sales for the month of July will be announced in UK. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be announcing Construction Output. Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, Leading Indicators, Existing Home Sales Change and existing Home Sales for the month of July and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for the month of August will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.  

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5652.42, 5455.12 and 5286.20, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their oversold zone with every sell off in the markets, signaling a pull back at any point of time in the markets.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 29.50 and 31.31, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.
2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -191.56 and -130.03, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 9.78, -DI: 35.87, ADX: 32.22: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market is in the trending range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of of these indicators are 5652.42, 5455.12 and 5286.20.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (17th August, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 407.68 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 176.93 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 393.71 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 150.44 Crore and of Rs. 550.95 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 139.78 Crore and of Rs. 240.63 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Index Options, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 190.36 Crore and of Rs. 13.12 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures and Stock Options.  

NIFTY AUG FUTURE ended at a Premium of 10.15 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AXISBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 1150/1140, if breaches the level of 1170.

HCLTECH:         Can touch the levels of 434/436, if crosses the level of 425.
ITC:                  Can touch the levels of 207/208, if crosses the level of 205.
SUNPHARMA:    Can touch the levels of 497/500, if crosses the level of 485.
TCS:                 Can touch the levels of 1025/1035, if crosses the level of 1005.

Pre Market Calls:

POLARIS:    Buy only if it trades above 134 for the Targets of 138/139, with the Strict SL of 132.

COLPAL:    Buy only if it trades above 934 for the Targets of 950/954, with the Strict SL of 922.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5090 / 5130 / 5160 levels. At the same time, 5020 / 4980 / 4950 will act as major intraday support levels. 



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