Sunday, August 28, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 29th August 2011



On Friday, NIFTY made a Long Black Candlestick Pattern, which dipped NIFTY to new 52-week Low or say to 18-Months Low. Here the Long Black Candlestick may signal panic or capitulation if it appears after a long decline. Market extended losses to an 18-month-low as investors avoided large bets ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's widely-watched speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later in the day. The ongoing concern of credit crisis in euro-zone and sustained selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) made investor sentiments edgy. NIFTY had a very flat opening but it edged lower as most Asian stocks fell. Volatility continued as the market trimmed losses to enter the positive terrain, and register intraday highs in morning trade. Till the first half of trading session or say till the opening of the European Markets, NIFTY traded extremely volatile taking a strong trading support of 4830. A negative opening across European market gave bears yet another life to make a comeback with force. NIFTY breached the level of 4830 very swiftly and started the bear onslaught continued till the fag end of session, dragging equities to give away their support levels and make new lows one after another. NIFTY made a low of 4720 for the day. Deeper Cuts were witnessed in REALTY & INFRA, METAL, OIL & GAS, BANKING & FINANCE and CONSUMER DURABLES Sector. For the day, NIFTY closed near to its day’s low at 4847.80 and also below the important support levels of 4750.

Technically, NIFTY finally touched the most awaited level of 4800, awaited since the next week of Diwali 2010. In fact on Friday, NIFTY closed below the crucial support level of 4750 at 4747.80. It was witnessed that the level of 4830, which was acting as a Good Trading Support Level for NIFTY since last two days, was breached very swiftly and it made a low of 4720. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5000 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4650 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders.

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Unemployment Rate, Overall Household Spending, Retail Trade and Large Retail Trade for the month of July. Consumer Price Index for the month of August will be announced in GERMANY. US will be announcing its Personal Consumption Expenditures, Personal Income, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure and Pending Home Sales for the month of July.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5605.16, 5370.17 and 5073.65, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their oversold zone with every sell off in the markets.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 24.64 and 27.97, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -251.98 and -227.10, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 9.26, -DI: 39.87, ADX: 43.34: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 40, indicates that the market is in the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of of these indicators are 5605.16, 5370.17 and 5073.65.

Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (26th August, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 226.25 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 1766.62 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 1612.26 Crore was witnessed in Others Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 27.62 Crore and of Rs. 287.99 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades.  

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 594.24 Crore and of Rs. 1323.46 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Index Options, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 126.30 Crore and of Rs. 24.78 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures and Stock Options.  

NIFTY AUG FUTURE ended at a Premium of 0.90 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

RCOM:              Can dip to the levels of 68/66, if breaches the level of 72.
GAIL:                Can dip to the levels of 395/392 levels.

For the day, 
intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4780 / 4820 / 4850 levels. At the same time, 4690 / 4650 / 4610 will act as major intraday support levels.
 

For the week, resistance for NIFTY comes at 4950 & 5020 levels. At the same time, 4600 & 4520 will act as major support levels.
 



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