Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern, with a longer
lower shadow, which depicts that markets maintained to close much above from
the day’s low. Disappointing Industrial Production Growth, Renewed Fears over
European Debt Crisis and Speculation that Moody’s Investor Service may Downgrade
France’s Biggest Banks with respect to their Exposure to Greece, alarmed the
Indian market. NIFTY witnessed a Gap Down Opening of almost 75 points,
triggered by concerns over European debt crisis. NIFTY took the support of 4950
levels and kept hovering around it till the announcement of IIP Data for the
month of July. July IIP growth stood at 3.3% vs 8.8% in June. For the month
ended July 31, the manufacturing output came in at 2.3% vs 10.8%, YoY. July
intermediate goods growth at fell by 1.1% vs 8.5%, YoY, and consumer goods
growth was at 8.6% vs 14.8%. The disappointing IIP Data, which was at 21-months
low pushed NIFTY down from the levels of 4950 immediately. NIFTY melted and
made a low of 4911.25 (almost 150 points down for the day, considering the Gap
Down too). NIFTY maintained the strong support of 4900 level, which is also a
crucial physiological level. The broader market too was beaten down heavily with
the indices for midcaps and SmallCaps losing nearly 2% each. Sectorally,
selling was seen across the board with interest rate sensitive stocks reporting
maximum losses. METAL, CONSUMER DURABLES IT, REALTY & INFRA, TECHNOLOGY and
BANKING & FINANCE Stocks were down over 3% each. In last hour of the
session, a bit of short covering was seen and NIFTY maintained to close much
above the levels of 4900 and 4920 at 4946.80.
Technically, NIFTY took a Strong
support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that only. As mentioned
earlier too that the so-called level of
4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad
News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence
traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days
EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling
pressure to creep in. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving
Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is
playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas
the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions.
A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th
November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th
August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the
first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the
NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY entered it too since
last three trading sessions, but since last two sessions, it actually reverted
from the levels of 5160 heading towards the level of 4800 again. Hence, still
the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However,
Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear
many times in between.
On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its FDI-
Foreign Direct Investment (YTD). Goods Trade Balance for the month of July, Nationwide
Consumer Confidence, Retail Price Index, Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer
Price Index for the month of August will be announced in UK. US will be coming out with its Import Price Index and Monthly
Budget Statement for the month of August and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for the
month of September.
Traders are suggested to trade
cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas,
Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give
better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns
thereafter.
NIFTY is trading below all its
Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5559.36, 5303.86
and 5054.51, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days
MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold
zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards their
oversold zone.
What does Indicators Say?
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are -56.60 and -138.88, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 20.94, -DI: 33.09, ADX: 30.63: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 40, indicates that the market is in the trading range right now.
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of of these indicators are 5559.36, 5303.86 and 5054.51.
Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (12th September,
2011) Trading Session:
Net Selling of Rs. 934.74 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 1249.89 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s
Trading Session.
Net Selling of Rs. 88.81 Crore and of Rs. 93.94 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory
and Others Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 40.39 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds Segment.
In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 1075.26 Crore, of Rs. 79.01 Crore, of Rs. 83.85 Crore and of Rs. 11.78 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options,
Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.
NIFTY SEP FUTURE ended at a Discount of 4.35
Points to the Spot NIFTY.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
CIPLA: Can touch the levels of 296/298, if crosses the level of 292.
SUNPHARMA: Can touch the levels of 498/500, if crosses the level of 491.
HCLTECH: Can dip to the levels of 367/365, if breaches the level of 376.
HINDALCO: Can dip to the levels of 140/138, if breaches the level of 143.
ICICIBANK: Can dip to the levels of 842/838, if breaches the level of 855.
TATASTEEL: Can dip to the levels of 443/440, if breaches the level of 455.
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