Sunday, October 2, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 03rd October 2011



On Friday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern. NIFTY marked a flat opening with negative bias, down by 25 points almost. Weak global markets and poor corporate earning concerns took their toll on domestic markets. Tracking weak Asian cues, which posted the steepest quarterly drop since 2008, bourses back home kick-started trade on a negative note. The key indices staged a speedy a valiant recovery in penultimate hour of morning trade and even managed to enter the green territory, before falling back in red again. NIFTY made an Intraday high of 5025.55 in the positive terrain. Sentiment deteriorated dramatically during the afternoon session owing to weak opening of European markets. Weak Q2 September 2011 earning concerns further dampened sentiment and negated any chances of late recovery. NIFTY fell to the intraday low in the last hour of trade and marked it at 4924.30. ADA Group witnessed deeper cuts of almost 5-12%, as CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation) was about to enquire Mr. Anil Ambani regarding 2G Scam. It did not breach the level of 4900 for the day again.   Sectorally, Major Losers for the day were METAL, REALTY & INFRA, BANKING & FINANCE and AUTO. Finally, for the day NIFTY ended below the level of 5000 at 4943.68.

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. Again NIFTY reverted from the 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 4998.68 by marking a low of 4924.30 and closing below it at 4943.25, however, in intraday trading it marked a high of 5025.55. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from this level for the third time and closed much below it. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term. In the upcoming trading sessions, NIFTY may again head towards the level of 5170 due to short term positive news flows and pull back effect backed by short covering.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY again reverted from the 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 4998.68 by marking a low of 4924.30 and closing below it at 4943.25, however, in intraday trading it marked a high of 5025.55. It is still trading below its Simple Moving Averages 200-Days SMA and 50-Days SMA of 5496.57 and 5129.06. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards their oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
     

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 45.46 and 45.61, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 7.95 and 14.89, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 23.42, -DI: 28.03, ADX: 19.07: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5496.57, 5129.06 and 4998.68.

Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (30th September, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 459.47 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 1327.84 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 134.62 Crore and of Rs. 739.58 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 2147.63 Crore was witnessed in Others Trades.  

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 1690.47 Crore and of Rs. 33.59 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 87.95 Crore and of Rs. 308.26 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Futures Segment.  

NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Discount of 8.95 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

SESAGOA:        Can touch the levels of 207/209, if crosses the level of 201.

AXISBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 1000/990, if breaches the level of 1020.
PNB:                Can dip to the levels of 935/930, if breaches the level of 950.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4980 / 5020 / 5050 levels. At the same time, 4920 / 4880 / 4850 will act as major intraday support levels. 

For the week, resistance for NIFTY comes at 5090 & 5170 levels. At the same time, 4800 & 4720 will act as major support levels.



  

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