On Friday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern. NIFTY marked
a flat opening with negative bias, down by 25 points almost. Weak global
markets and poor corporate earning concerns took their toll on domestic markets.
Tracking weak Asian cues, which posted the steepest quarterly drop since 2008,
bourses back home kick-started trade on a negative note. The key indices staged
a speedy a valiant recovery in penultimate hour of morning trade and even
managed to enter the green territory, before falling back in red again. NIFTY
made an Intraday high of 5025.55 in the positive terrain. Sentiment
deteriorated dramatically during the afternoon session owing to weak opening of
European markets. Weak Q2 September 2011 earning concerns further dampened
sentiment and negated any chances of late recovery. NIFTY fell to the
intraday low in the last hour of trade and marked it at 4924.30. ADA Group witnessed
deeper cuts of almost 5-12%, as CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation) was about
to enquire Mr. Anil Ambani regarding 2G Scam. It did not breach the level of
4900 for the day again. Sectorally, Major Losers for the day were METAL,
REALTY & INFRA, BANKING & FINANCE and AUTO. Finally, for the day NIFTY ended
below the level of 5000 at 4943.68.
Technically, NIFTY took a Strong
support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too
that the so-called level of 4800 got
achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in
the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders
and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. Again NIFTY reverted
from the 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 4998.68 by marking a low
of 4924.30 and closing below it at 4943.25, however, in intraday trading it
marked a high of 5025.55. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative
Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative
Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still
intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level
for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good
Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being
drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent
18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which
represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important
resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a
Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from this level for the
third time and closed much below it. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the
Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the
traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders
are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many
times in between.
5170 on the upper side and 4720
on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of
September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same
level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further
direction of the market in the short term. In the upcoming trading sessions,
NIFTY may again head towards the level of 5170 due to short term positive news
flows and pull back effect backed by short covering.
Traders are suggested to trade
cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas,
Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give
better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns
thereafter.
NIFTY again reverted from the
20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 4998.68 by marking a low of 4924.30
and closing below it at 4943.25, however, in intraday trading it marked a high
of 5025.55. It is still trading below its Simple Moving Averages 200-Days SMA
and 50-Days SMA of 5496.57 and 5129.06. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index)
and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from
the oversold zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are
heading towards their oversold zone.
What does Indicators Say?
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 7.95 and 14.89, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 23.42, -DI: 28.03, ADX: 19.07: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5496.57, 5129.06 and 4998.68.
Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (30th September,
2011) Trading Session:
Net Selling of Rs. 459.47 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 1327.84 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.
Net Buying of Rs. 134.62 Crore and of Rs. 739.58 Crore was witnessed in Mutual
Funds and Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 2147.63 Crore was witnessed in Others Trades.
In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 1690.47 Crore and of Rs. 33.59 Crore was witnessed in Index Options
and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 87.95 Crore and of Rs. 308.26 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Futures
Segment.
NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Discount of 8.95
Points to the Spot NIFTY.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
SESAGOA: Can touch the levels of 207/209, if crosses the level of 201.
AXISBANK: Can dip to the levels of 1000/990, if breaches the level of 1020.
PNB: Can dip to the levels of 935/930, if breaches the level of
950.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4980 / 5020 / 5050 levels. At the same time, 4920 / 4880 / 4850 will act as major intraday support levels.
For the week, resistance for NIFTY comes at 5090 & 5170 levels. At the same time, 4800 & 4720 will act as major support levels.
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