Monday, October 17, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 18th October 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern, with a longer lower shadow representing NIFTY closed much above the day’s low level. Market made a strong start on the back of strong global cues. The cues were majorly helped after the group of 20 finance chiefs meeting in Paris endorsed parts of a plan to contain Europe’s debt crisis. Consequently, Asian stocks rose, extending the biggest weekly gain since March on the region’s benchmark index. NIFTY hit intraday high within moments of opening and marked it at 5160.20 levels. Nonetheless, just as it appeared as if the market is in for another bull rally, the bears fought back, pushing NIFTY below the Friday’s closing. Although it re-entered the positive terrain soon, the reign in the green was a short-lived one and it turned red again. Post noon, NIFTY fell to its intraday low of 5084.50. Although a strong European markets’ opening helped the market to recover from the day’s lows, it continued to move in a tight range since then. Sectors such as AUTO, CONSUMER DURABLES, BANKING & FINANCE, REALTY & INFRA and FMCG were the top gainers for the day, whereas, OIL & GAS, CAPITAL GOODS and POWER Sectors were the top losers fort the day.  Finally, for the day NIFTY managed to close at 5118.25, marking another closing above the levels of 5100.    

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 4999.27 and 5012.16, respectively on closing basis. Both these averages are on the verge of giving a Positive Crossover (20-Days EMA is about to cross the 50-Days SMA from downside). It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5459.66. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. Yesterday, NIFTY crossed this level by marking a high of 5160.20 for the day and also closed above it at 5118.25. It has got reverted from this level for the thrice and has crossed it again for the fourth time. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term. 5170 is the level again to be watched, if NIFTY crosses it and sustains above it successfully this time, it may touch the level of 5350 this time.

On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its Q3 Gross Domestic Product, Retail Sales, Urban Investment and Industrial Production for the month of September. Machine Tool Orders for the month of September will be announced in JAPAN. UK will be coming out with Retail Price Index, Core Consumer Price Index and Consumer Price Index for the month of September. ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. GERMANY will be announcing its ZEW Survey – Current Situation and ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment for the month of October. Net Long-term TIC Flows and Total Net TIC Flows for the month of August, Producer Price Index for the month of September and NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of October will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. CHAMBLFERT, CHENNPETRO, COROMANDEL, CRISIL, EDELWEISS, HCLTECH, HEROMOTOCO, HONEYWELLAUTO, INDUSINDBK, INOX, JINDALSTEL, NIITTECH, PATNI, PETRONET, PRISM and TORRENTPHARM will be announcing their Results in INDIA. BANK OF AMERICA, HARLEY DAVIDSON INC, COCA COLA CO, GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC, JOHNSON & JOHNSON, DOMINOS PIZZA INC, YAHOO! INC and INTEL CORP will be announcing their Q3 FY11 Results in US.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 4999.27 and 5012.16, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5446.27. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards their oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
              

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 56.76 and 52.03, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 16.69 and 39.57, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 27.67, -DI: 21.56, ADX: 15.88: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5446.27, 5012.16 and 4999.27.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (17th October, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 378.71 Crore in Cash while Net Selling of Rs. 306.21 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 137.26 Crore and of Rs. 734.85 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1170.58 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 140.56 Crore and of Rs. 17.85 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, respectively, while, Net Selling of Rs. 159.04 Crore and of Rs. 305.58 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively.

NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Discount 2.40 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AMBUJACEM:    Can touch the levels of 156/157, if crosses the level of 153.
CAIRN:              Can touch the levels of 305/308, if crosses the level of 299.
MARUTI:           Can touch the levels of 1070/1080, if crosses the level of 1055.
TATAMOTORS:  Can touch the levels of 193/195, if crosses the level of 190.

RELIANCE:        Can dip to the levels of 820/818, if breaches the level of 835.

For the day, 
intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5150 / 5180 / 5220 levels. At the same time, 5080 / 5050 / 5020 will act as major intraday support levels.
 
 

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