Yesterday, NIFTY made a Bearish Dragonfly Doji Candlestick Pattern.
Market moved down going much lower than the opening level. Then a rally was
witnessed in the closing hours of the day, which closed the day very near to
the opening level. However this end-of-day rally signifies the potential for
further sell offs. The long lower shadow shows how the market started the day
with a sell off. If the market opens lower the next day, a lot of longs would
be eager to sell their positions. This pattern gets confirmation of the trend
reversal by either a black candlestick, a large gap down or a by a lower close
on the next trading day is witnessed. Weak global economic outlook and
unfavourable weekly inflation numbers reaped havoc on the bourses. Earlier, NIFTY
opened well below the previous day’s closing as a split between the two nations
(France and Germany) emerged over Europe’s rescue strategy. US Federal
Reserve’s statement that the companies are growing pessimistic about the
economy further dented sentiments as NIFTY continued to hit one fresh intraday
low after another throughout the morning session. The chances of NIFTY making
any late bounce-back were further negated as soon as the weekly inflation
numbers were announced. For the week ended October 1, 2011, primary articles
inflation came in at 11.18% versus 10.6% (WoW), while food articles inflation
stood at 10.6% versus 9.32% (WoW). Similarly, fuel group inflation grew to
15.17%, compared to 15.1% over the previous week. NIFTY marked a low of 5033.95
for the day. The later hours, however, saw the market recovering from the lows
and write off a major part of their losses on the back of some bottom fishing
at lower levels. NIFTY made fresh intraday high at the concluding hours of trade
at 5099.00. IT was the biggest gainer for the day and led the markets to touch
day’s high. Finally, for the day NIFTY managed to close at 5091.90, just below the
level of 5100.
Technically, NIFTY took a Strong
support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too
that the so-called level of 4800 got
achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in
the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders
and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. A Negative
Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still
intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and
50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5023.13 and 4998.58, respectively on
closing basis. Both the averages have given a Positive Crossover, as the 20-Days
EMA has crossed the 50-Days SMA from downside. 20-Days EMA is also acting as a
Good Support Level for Nifty since last two trading sessions. NIFTY is trading
much below its 200-Days SMA of 5431.33. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing
a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the
level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A
Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th
November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th
August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the
first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the
NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY is again struggling
with this level; however, it closed below it at 5091.90 yesterday and could not
even touch the level of 5100. It has got reverted from this level four times
and has crossed it again for the fifth time. Still extreme uncertainties lie in
the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still
the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However,
Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear
many times in between.
5170 on the upper side and 4720
on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of
September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same
level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further
direction of the market in the short term. 5170 is the level again to be
watched, if NIFTY crosses it and sustains above it successfully this time, it
may touch the level of 5350 this time.
On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its IFO
– Current Assessment, IFO – Business Climate and IFO – Expectations for the
month of October. Public Sector Net Borrowing for the month of September will
be announced in UK.
Traders are suggested to trade
cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas,
Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give
better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns
thereafter.
Q2 FY11 Results Season is running
all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific
actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be
announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. AKZOINDIA, ALFALAVAL,
ARVIND, ASIANPAINT, BLUEDART, ESSELPROPACK, FEDERALBANK, FINOLEXIND, GEOMETRIC,
GODREJCONS, GFSC, GUJRAJIND, HCC, IDEA, INDIBULLS FIN, INGERSOLLRAND, JSWSTEEL,
KANSAI NEROLAC, LT, NIIT, PANACEABIO, RCF, THOMASCOOK, UNITED PHOS and UNIPHOS will be announcing their
Results in INDIA. GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY will be
announcing its Q3 FY11 Results in US.
NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA
(Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5023.13
and 4998.58, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its
200-Days SMA of 5431.33. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD
(Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold
zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards
their oversold zone.
What does Indicators Say?
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 931 and 21.00, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 27.73, -DI: 24.19, ADX: 14.15: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of 200-Days SMA, but above the levels of 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5431.13, 4998.58 and 5023.13, respectively.
Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (20th October,
2011) Trading Session:
Net Selling of Rs. 472.00 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 2056.14 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.
Net Selling of Rs. 260.29 Crore, of Rs. 310.55 Crore and of Rs. 233.80 Crore was witnessed in Mutual
Funds, Proprietory Trades and Others
Segment, respectively.
In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 3177.27 Crore and of Rs. 15.36 Crore was witnessed in Index Options
and Stock Futures, respectively, while, Net Selling of Rs. 609.92 Crore and of Rs. 526.57 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, respectively.
NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Premium 10.95
Points to the Spot NIFTY.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
AXISBANK: Can touch the levels of 1150/1160, if crosses the level of 1135.
SUNPHARMA: Can touch the levels of 500/502, if crosses the level of 490.
TATASTEEL: Can touch the levels of 451/453, if crosses the level of 442.
Pre Market Calls:
BOMDYEING: Buy ONLY IF ITS TRADES ABOVE 413 for the TARGETS of 422/425, with the STRICT SL of 408.
RAYMOND: Buy ONLY IF ITS TRADES ABOVE 360 for the TARGETS of 368/372, with the STRICT SL of 355.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5120 / 5150 / 5180 levels. At the same time, 5050 / 5020 / 4980 will act as major intraday support levels.
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