Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 01st December 2011


Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern. Equities rose smartly, wiping out initial losses, as investors heaved a collective sigh of relief over the country’s economic health after GDP data for September met estimates. NIFTY marked a gap down start of almost 35-40 points, the market gained strength during afternoon session due to strong buying as investors judged the fall market over the past few weeks overdone. Further, a data showed gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 6.9% in the July-September quarter this fiscal, which was in line with the market expectations and kept the market mood cheerful. The market tripped slightly on the red carpet again during late afternoon session, but brushed away losses to regain uptrend in the pre-close session. NIFTY marked an intraday high of 4851.55 and a low of 4754.80. NIFTY recovered almost 95 points from the day’s low level. It was a total roller coaster ride for the markets after the announcement of Q2 GDP Data, markets touched the day’s high and after the opening of European Markets, witnessed a sell off again in sync with them. But in the end, Markets again bounced back near to the day’s high level. CONSUMER DURABLES was the laggard for the day, whereas, OIL & GAS Sector was the major gainer for the day. For the day NIFTY ended at 4832.05, below the crucial level of 4850.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Again a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since last two days, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY is once again trading much below its 20-Days EMA, 50-Days SMA and 200-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 20-Months Low marked 4639.10 by NIFTY (24th November, 2011). The lower trendline marked form the low of 4720 marked on 26th August, 2011 is acting as a Strong Resistance right now for NIFTY on closing basis, if it gets cross NIFTY May touch the levels of 5030 in the coming trading sessions. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Crisis. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from PIIGS Countries all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4720, which was acting as a Strong Support level since the month of August. Now, the level of 5039.54 (61.80% Level of Retracement) is acting as a crucial resistance, whereas, the level of 5650 is acting as a good support level on the closing basis for NIFTY. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Q3 Capital Spending, Monetary Base and Vehicle Sales for the month of November. Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Manufacturing PMI for the month of November will be announced in CHINA. UK will be coming out with its Halifax House Prices and Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of November. Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of November will be announced in GERMANY. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be announcing its Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of November. Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending for the month of October, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid for the month of November and Total Vehicle Sales for the month of December will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading much below all its moving averages of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 4832.14, 5022.36 and 5347.03, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) has again reverted from its Oversold zone, but with every jerk it gets inclined towards the oversold zone. The 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) is still trading in the oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                             

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 41.55 and 38.31, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 201.25 and 111.02, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 16.04, -DI: 31.16, ADX: 26.60: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market's trend is gaining strength.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5347.03, 5022.36 and 4832.14, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (30th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 34.12 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 788.24 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 525.76 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 9.11 Crore and of Rs. 769.57 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment, respectively.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 363.13 Crore, of Rs. 608.19 Crore and of Rs. 17.63 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 200.71 Crore was witnessed in Index Options.

NIFTY DEC FUTURE ended at a Premium of 0.30 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

NTPC:              Can touch the levels of 165/166, if crosses the level of 162.
SUNPHARMA:    Can touch the levels of 536/540, if crosses the level of 526.
TCS:                Can touch the levels of 1140/1150, if crosses the level of 1120.

HEROMOTOCO: Can dip to the levels of 1970/1960, if breaches the level of 2000.
RANBAXY:        Can dip to the levels of 428/425, if breaches the level of 434.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4850 / 4880 / 4920 levels. At the same time, 4780 / 4750 / 4720 will act as major intraday support levels.  

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