Sunday, November 20, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 21st November 2011



On Friday, NIFTY again made a Bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern, which reduces the previous bearish sentiment causing the short traders to feel increasingly uneasy with their bearish positions. Equities dropped on Friday, foreshadowing a gloomy weekend, as investors chose to reduce risk in their portfolios after euro-zone debt crisis failed to reach a conclusive solution. Lingering concerns of slowing domestic growth, rising interest and cost pressures compounded with rupee slumping to a near-32 month low impacted overall confidence. Reflecting weakness in Asian shares, the market started trade on a bleak note and plunged deeper to hit six-week lows within a short span of time. NIFTY witnessed a negative opening of almost 35 Points. Bears, however, took a slight breather, helping benchmarks trim losses in mid-morning trade. The pullback, nevertheless, was short-lived as bourses across Europe started with a deep cut and pushed markets lower. NIFTY marked an intraday low of 4837.95. NIFTY was diving lower and lower breaching important support levels of 4880 and 4850 rapidly, fearing traders too. A fresh recovery in IT counter in the last trading hour, surprisingly, provided the much-needed boost for market to gush higher, but not strong enough to break the negative lid. NIFTY marked an intraday high of 4915.90. REALTY & INFRA was the sector which drag down the markets. For the day NIFTY ended at 4905.80.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Both the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA have given a Positive Crossover, as the short term moving average has crossed the longer term average. NIFTY is once again trading much below its 20-Days EMA, 50-Days SMA and 200-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). Yesterday, NIFTY has again slipped below the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97 on closing basis. As mentioned earlier, that the breaching of 61.80% of the Fibonnaci Retracement marked from the high of 6338.50 to the low of 4720.00, signals that NIFTY can again witness a dip to the level of 5000/4950, NIFTY successfully achieved the level of 4950 on closing basis. Now there is a high probability that NIFTY may also further dip to the level of 4800/4720. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Crisis. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from PIIGS Countries all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

Due to panic sell off for a streak of four days, NIFTY may again witness a bounce back which could be aided by short covering to its 20-Days EMA of 5110.79 or 5130 in the coming trading sessions.

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its All Industry Activity Index, Leading Economic Index and Coincident Index for the month of September. Rightmove House Price Index for the month of November will be announced in UK. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with Current Account for the month of September. Existing Home Sales Change and Existing Home Sales will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is once again trading below all its moving averages of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 5110.79, 5064.87 and 5373.26, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) is heading towards its oversold zone from the overbought zone and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) has given a negative crossover.

What does Indicators Say?
                         

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 35.11 and 45.48, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 9.21 and 77.43, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 19.80, -DI: 37.29, ADX: 17.38: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5373.26, 5064.87 and 5110.79, respectively. 

Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (18th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 871.62 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 37.73 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 139.85 Crore and of Rs. 2619.30 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 2519.94 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 648.15 Crore, of Rs. 14.56 Crore and of Rs. 37.73 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 670.73 Crore was witnessed in Index Options.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Discount 8.80 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

LT:                  Can touch the levels of 1265/1275, if touches the level of 1250.
SAIL:                Can touch the levels of 98/99, if touches the level of 95.
WIPRO:            Can touch the levels of 382/385, if touches the level of 375.

ITC:                  Can dip to the levels of 197/195, if breaches the level of 201.

Pre Market Calls:

JSWSTEEL: Sell ONLY IF IT TRADES BELOW 610 for the TARGETS of 595/585, with the STRICT SL of 617.

ALBK: Sell ONLY IF IT TRADES BELOW 147 for the TARGETS of 144/142, with the STRICT SL of 148.90.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4950 / 4980 / 5020 levels. At the same time, 4880 / 4850 / 4820 will act as major intraday support levels.    

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