Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 21st December 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Opening Marubozu Candlestick Pattern. This formation suggests that it was a day for bears and such a bearish rally should cause concern among the bulls. Yesterday, NIFTY failed the Bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern made on the previous day. Soon after opening on a strong note, triggered by positive Asian stocks, NIFTY registered its intraday high of 4637.25. However, weakness in rupee forced foreign institutional investors (FII) to pull out capital from Asia’s third largest economy, pushing NIFTY below the previous days’ closing and also below the levels of 4600. After trading in the negative terrain for most part of trade, Nifty recovered almost 54 points and re-entered the positive zone. Buying activity in FMCG, OIL & GAS, and PHARMA counters coupled with positive European cues provided support. Nonetheless, a sudden selling pressure in index heavyweight, RIL, and CAPITAL GOODS bellwether, Larsen and Toubro, snapped the uptrend. Heavy Selling pressure was witnessed in the Broader Market once again, with same cruelty. Stocks were dumped 8-10%. Equities nosedived in the negative terrain, once again! NIFTY registered fresh intraday low as well as 28-Months Low of 4531.15. It was free fall for NIFTY in the last half an hour of trade. It closed at 4544.20 for the day, which was the lowest closing level since August 2009.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY has again dipped below its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4650 on closing basis, which was till now acting as a good support level. It is becoming really tough for NIFTY to make a proper ground to land on. The level of 4450 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY, whereas the level of 4720 is the immediate resistance for NIFTY on Closing Basis. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, Bank of Japan will be coming out with its Interest Rate Decision in JAPAN. UK will be coming out with its Public Sector Net Borrowing for the month of November and Gfk Consumer Confidence for the month of December. Consumer Confidence for the month of December will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be announcing its MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales Change and Existing Home Sales for the month of November.  

Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is again trading below all its moving averages. The 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average), 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is at 5309.92, 4987.74 and 4815.67, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the oversold zone one again.

What does Indicators Say?
                                    

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 30.62 and 37.76, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 30.37 and 61.84, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 16.31, -DI: 32.65, ADX: 23.42: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the level of  200-Days SMA, but has crossed its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA on closing basis. These indicators are at the levels of 5309.92, 4987.74 and 4815.67, respectively. 

Some Trading Stats of the Tuesday’s (20th December, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 526.26 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 355.30 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 2059.97 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 36.49 Crore and of Rs. 946.31 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 290.81 Crore and of Rs. 33.19 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 481.85 Crore and of Rs. 197.45 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively.

NIFTY DEC FUTURE ended at a Premium of 10.30 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

ACC:                Can dip to the levels of 1080/1070, if breaches the level of 1100.
AXISBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 800/795, if breaches the level of 820.
BHEL:               Can dip to the levels of 223/220, if breaches the level of 228.
BPCL:               Can dip to the levels of 490/486, if breaches the level of 500.
DLF:                 Can dip to the levels of 180/178, if breaches the level of 184.
HCLTECH:         Can dip to the levels of 383/379, if breaches the level of 391.
HINDALCO:       Can dip to the levels of 116/115.60, if breaches the level of 118.50.
JPASSOCIAT:    Can dip to the levels of 51.50/50, if breaches the level of 53.
PNB:                Can dip to the levels of 765/760, if breaches the level of 778.
RELIANCE:        Can dip to the levels of 695/690, if breaches the level of 710.

 For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4580 / 4620 / 4650 levels. At the same time, 4520 / 4480 / 4450 will act as major intraday support levels.  

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