Thursday, January 5, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 06th January 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Doji Candlestick Pattern, signaling a lot of uncertainty in the Market and also a reversal in the earlier trend of the market. Market started off trade on a positive note and within minutes of opening NIFTY registered the intraday high of 4779.80, but could not even touch or cross the level of 4800 again. Later, it slipped from higher levels, an ease in weekly inflation and positive global cues helped NIFTY to stay on the positive terrain till late afternoon session. However, a bout of selling pressure barged in the REALTY & INFRA and OIL & GAS counters during late trading session and dragged NIFTY to intraday low of 4730.15. It maintained the level of 4720. Markets traded in a very tight range throughout the day, but with extreme volatility. AUTO Sector was the biggest duds, whereas, PSU and CAPITAL GOODS Sectors were the Star Performers for the day. Finally, NIFTY ended flattish at 4749.95.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA yesterday, on the closing basis, but it is still trading below its 50-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4650 on closing basis, which was till now acting as a good support level. It is becoming really tough for NIFTY to make a proper ground to land on. The level of 4550 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY, whereas the level of 4800 is the immediate resistance for NIFTY on Closing Basis, so that Investors can be allowed to enter into the markets. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with its Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate for the month of November, Consumer Confidence, Economic Confidence and Industrial Confidence for the month of December. Factory Orders for the month of November will be announced in GERMANY. US will be coming out with its Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours and Unemployment Rate for the month of December.

Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 4744.11 on closing basis, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA of 5263.27 and 4911.91, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the oversold zone one again.

What does Indicators Say?
                                      

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 48.43 and 44.86, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 63.13 and 82.11, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 23.27, -DI: 23.40, ADX: 16.06: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.
4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA on the closing basis yesterday, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA and 50-Days SMA on closing basis. These indicators are at the levels of 5263.27, 4911.91 and 4744.11, respectively.  

Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (05th January, 2012) Trading Session:
Net Buying of Rs. 381.42 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 515.27 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 22.24 Crore and of Rs. 379.76 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 654.91 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 313.55 Crore, of Rs. 121.57 Crore, of Rs. 79.42 Crore and of Rs. 0.73 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.

NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 8.15 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

CAIRN:              Can touch the levels of 346/348, if crosses the level of 340.
CIPLA:              Can touch the levels of 272/275, if crosses the level of 267.
JPASSOCIAT:    Can touch the levels of 57.80/58.20, if crosses the level of 56.
M&M:               Can touch the levels of 665/670, if crosses the level of 652.
PNB:                Can touch the levels of 57.80/58.20, if crosses the level of 56.

DLF:                Can dip to the levels of 175/173, if breaches the level of 179.
GAIL:                Can dip to the levels of 372/370, if breaches the level of 380.

Pre Market Calls:

FINANTECH: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 575 for the TARGETS of 586/592, with the STRICT SL of 568.

RAJESHEXPO: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 134 for the TARGETS of 137/140, with the STRICT SL of 132.20.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4780 / 4820 / 4850 levels. At the same time, 4720 / 4680 / 4650 will act as major intraday support levels.




No comments:

Post a Comment