Sunday, January 8, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 09th January 2012



On Friday, NIFTY made a High Wave Candlestick Pattern. This pattern is like long legged doji shows that there is a great amount of indecision in the market. It means that the end result is not different from the initial open despite the whole excitement and volatility during the day. The pattern implies a loss of sense of direction and that there is a great amount of indecision in the market. A confirmation of this Candlestick Pattern is definitely required in the form of an opposite move to the prior trade on the next trading day in order to judge that a reversal may be starting. NIFTY witnessed a Gap Down Opening of almost 25 Points and then traded in the southward direction in the early session. It marked a low of 4730.15 for the day. But it did not touch or breach the level of 4720. After marking a low, it kept trading in a small range and reverted sharply in last trading hour. It bounced to the level of 4794.90, but could not even touch or cross the level of 4800. OIL & GAS, FMCG, BANKING & FINANCE and PHARMA were the sectors to close in Green for the day, whereas, CAPITAL GOODS, REALTY &INFRA and POWER Sectors were the major losers for the day. Finally, NIFTY ended at 4754.10 for the day.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA yesterday, on the closing basis, but it is still trading below its 50-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4650 on closing basis, which was till now acting as a good support level. It is becoming really tough for NIFTY to make a proper ground to land on. The level of 4550 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY, whereas the level of 4800 is the immediate resistance for NIFTY on Closing Basis, so that Investors can be allowed to enter into the markets. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Industrial Production, Current Account and Trade Balance for the month of November. Halifax House Prices for the month of December will be announced in UK. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with Sentix Investor Confidence for the month of January. Consumer Credit Change for the month of November will be announced in US.

Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 4745.06 on closing basis, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA of 5259.81 and 4905.03, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the oversold zone one again.

What does Indicators Say?
                                     

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 48.75 and 45.64, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 55.05 and 76.70, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 21.36, -DI: 24.77, ADX: 15.44: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.
4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA on the closing basis yesterday, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA and 50-Days SMA on closing basis. These indicators are at the levels of 5259.81, 4905.06 and 4745.06, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Saturday’s (07th January, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 28.63 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 102.87 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Saturday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 84.98 Crore and of Rs. 119.34 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 582.22 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 9.01 Crore, of Rs. 88.85 Crore, of Rs. 5.00 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively, while, No Action was witnessed in Stock Options.

NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 17.85 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BPCL:               Can touch the levels of 485/490, if crosses the level of 478.
HINDALCO:       Can touch the levels of 121/123, if crosses the level of 119.
RCOM:              Can touch the levels of 79.50/80, if crosses the level of 78.
RELINFRA:        Can touch the levels of 388/392, if crosses the level of 381.
RPOWER:          Can touch the levels of 75.20/75.50, if crosses the level of 73.80.

BHARTIARTL:    Can dip to the levels of 323/320, if breaches the level of 330.
HEROMOTOCO: Can dip to the levels of 1705/1695, if breaches the level of 1730.
JINDALSTEL:     Can dip to the levels of 455/450, if breaches the level of 465.

Pre Market Calls:

ARVIND: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 75.60 for the TARGETS of 78/78.80, with the STRICT SL of 74.50.

PANTALOONR: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 149 for the TARGETS of 153/155, with the STRICT SL of 147.10.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4780 / 4820 / 4850 levels. At the same time, 4720 / 4680 / 4650 will act as major intraday support levels. 


    

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