Yesterday, NIFTY made a High Wave Candlestick Pattern, showing
a great amount of indecision in the market. This Pattern means that the
end result is not different from the initial open despite the whole excitement
and volatility during the day. The pattern implies a loss of sense of direction
and that there is a great amount of indecision in the market. NIFTY witnessed a
negative opening of almost 20 points, backed by weak global cues led to a gap
down opening. To add misery, lower-than-expected Infosys guidance sent a wave
of selling pressure during late morning trade. The IT bellwether now expects
its fiscal year revenue in dollar terms to grow 16.4%, compared with its
previous forecast of 17.1%-19.1%. The widespread declines, however, found
some respite after the country’s factory output rebounded from previous month’s
negative reading. Industrial output rose 5.9% from a year earlier in November
versus October's revised 4.7% contraction, driven by higher manufacturing and
electricity output. The market entered the green zone, but only for a
short-while. NIFTY marked a high of 4869.20 after the announcement of data, but
again resisted at the levels of 4880 very strongly. Moreover, a slight increase
in weekly food inflation coupled with positive European opening were other
triggers which failed to make an impact on the edgy investor mood. India's
wholesale price index for food articles dropped 2.9% in the week ended December
31, 2011. After the announcement of Inflation Numbers NIFTY dipped to the
levels of 4803.90 in just half hour it lost almost 65 points from the day’s
high level. After this, it rebounded back and traded in a range of merely 20
points. POWER Sector was the biggest gainer for the day, whereas, IT Sector was
the biggest loser. Finally, after a very volatile and roller coaster ride sort
of trading session, NIFTY ended at 4831.25 for the day.
Technically, a Negative Crossover
between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact.
Even a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed
since, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions.
NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA yesterday, on the closing basis, but it is
still trading below its 50-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being
drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the
28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still
the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the
markets. The level of 4550 will now act as the strong support level on closing
basis for NIFTY. Now, the level of 4950 (61.80% Level of Retracement) will act
as an important resistance for it. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets
to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of
Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.
On the Economic Front, U.K. will be coming out with its Producer
Price Index – Input and Producer Price Index – Output from the month of
December. Trade Balance for the month of November will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. U.S. will be
announcing its Trade Balance for the month of November, Import Price Index for
the month of December and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the
month of January.
Q2 FY12 Results Season has
commenced in India. Some of the important results to be announced are of SINTEX and CMC.
Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating
European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance
Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is
resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders
are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast
Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now,
as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning
handsome returns thereafter.
NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA
(Exponential Moving Average) of 4771.36 on closing basis, but it is still
trading below its 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA of 5244.19
and 4858.89, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and
26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading
towards the overbought zone.
What does Indicators Say?
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 12.47 and 32.62, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 25.50, -DI: 25.78, ADX: 12.53: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.
Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (12th January, 2012)
Trading Session:
Net Buying of Rs. 506.80 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 677.84
Crore in F&O Segment by
FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.
In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 603.26 Crore and of Rs. 217.89 Crore was witnessed in Index Options
and Stock Futures, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 114.54 Crore and of Rs. 28.78 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, respectively.
NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 20.95
Points to the Spot NIFTY.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
COALINDIA: Can touch the levels of 332/335, if crosses the level of 326.
IDFC: Can touch the levels of 113/115, if crosses the level of 112.
JPASSOCIAT: Can touch the levels of 60.70/61.20, if crosses the level of 59.
PNB: Can touch the levels of 925/930, if crosses the level of 906.
INFY: Can dip to the levels of 2530/2520, if breaches the level
of 2585.
Pre Market Calls:
BIOCON: Sell ONLY IF IT TRADES BELOW 261 for the TARGETS of 255/250, with the STRICT SL of 264.20.
SUNTV: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 300 for the TARGETS of 306/310, with the STRICT SL of 296.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4850 / 4880 / 4920 levels. At the same time, 4800 / 4780 / 4750 will act as major intraday support levels.
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