Thursday, January 19, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 20th January 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Small White Candlestick Pattern. Following Robust Global Cues, NIFTY registered another Gap Up Opening of almost 39 points. Overnight gains in the U.S. after surprisingly strong housing figures and International Monetary Fund's (IMF) plan to expand its lending resources to counter Europe's debt crisis, bolstered investor confidence across the globe. NIFTY regained its important psychological level of 5000 for the first time since December 8 last year. After the endiing of Morning session and before the opening European Markets, NIFTY traded in a very range and also marked an intraday low of 4991.40. But after a firm start of the European Markets, NIFTY again pulled back from the low of the day and added gains till the intraday high of 5023.80. REALTY & INFRA and METAL Sectors were the biggest gainers for the day, which also helped market to gain. Finally, NIFTY ended at 5018.40 for the day, above the crucial level of 5000.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. As mentioned earlier, NIFTY has touched the levels of 4950/5000 on the closing basis. “A Short Term Positive Moving Average Crossover is on the verge of development, as the 20-Days EMA (Short Term Moving Average) is on the verge of crossing the 50-Days SMA (Long Term Moving Average) from downside. This Crossover will result in a Short Term upside movement of NIFTY till the levels of 4950/5000”. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Still the investors should wait for fruitful results ahead and stay away from the markets. The level of 4720 will now act as the strong support level on closing basis for NIFTY. Now, NIFTY has also crossed the level of 4957.07 (61.80% Level of Retracement) on the closing basis, which may lead it to the levels of 5050/5080, if it registers continuous Two-Three Closing above this. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its HSBC Manufacturing PMI for the month of January. All Industry Activity Index, Leading Economic Index and Coincident Index for the month of November will be announced in JAPAN. GERMANY will be coming out with its Producer Price Index for the month of December. Retail Sales for the month of December, will be announced in U.K. U.S. will be announcing its Existing Home Sales Change and Existing Home Sales for the month of December.

Quarterly Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. INDIA Inc. will be Q3 FY12 Results. Some of the important results to be announced tomorrow in INDIA are of AXISBANK, MAHABANK, EXIDEIND, HCC, HINDZINC, ITC, JETAIRWAYS, JSWSTEEL, NIIT, POLARIS, PRAJIND, RELIANCE, SYNDIBANK, MCDOWELL-N, WIPRO and WWIL. GENERAL ELECTRIC CO will be announcing its Q4 FY11 numbers in U.S.

Weakening Rupee, Deteriorating European Economy Conditions, Uncertainties in Indian Corporate and Finance Scenario are acting as major triggers of the massive sell off, which is resulting in development of Fear among the Indian and International Investors. Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 4839.33 and 4826.14, respectively on the closing basis, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA of 5224.10. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the overbought zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                                    

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 66.58 and 58.82, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 88.94 and 35.57, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 32.44, -DI: 19.39, ADX: 13.27: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market is in the trading range.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA on the closing basis yesterday, but it is still trading below its 200-Days SMA and 50-Days SMA on closing basis. These indicators are at the levels of 5224.10, 4826.14 and 4839.33, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (19th January, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 626.14 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 2187.26 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 1133.35 Crore, of Rs. 552.40 Crore and of Rs. 536.29 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 34.78 Crore was witnessed in Stock Options.  

NIFTY JAN FUTURE ended at a Premium of 3.65 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AMBUJACEM:    Can touch the levels of 164/166, if crosses the level of 161.
HINDALCO:       Can touch the levels of 149/151, if crosses the level of 146.
STER:               Can touch the levels of 118/119, if crosses the level of 115.50.
TATAPOWER:    Can touch the levels of 106.60/107.20, if crosses the level of 104.20.

BHEL:               Can dip to the levels of 258/256, if breaches the level of 265.
M&M:               Can dip to the levels of 658/656, if breaches the level of 672.

Pre Market Calls:

ABAN: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 442 for the TARGETS of 452/460, with the STRICT SL of 436. (ONLY FOR HIGH RISK TRADERS)

BIOCON: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 276 for the TARGETS of 281/283, with the STRICT SL of 272.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5050 / 5080 / 5120 levels. At the same time, 4980 / 4950 / 4920 will act as major intraday support levels. 

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