Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 02nd February 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern with a longer lower shadow, which shows that NIFTY closed at the day’s high level recovering from the day’s low. The markets pared their previous session's gains and started off trade on a negative note. This fall was triggered by weak US data which broke the confidence that the world’s largest economy is safe from the euro zone debt crisis. In addition, the Asian stocks too traded with great effort as Chinese manufacturing data botched to wipe out the cautious sentiment. Soon after the opening bell NIFTY entered positive terrain, but within minutes slipped back in red. Thereafter, it traded range-bound below the previous days’ closing level of 5199.25 till mid-noon session. Later, on back of sustained selling pressure, it marked an intraday low of 5159.00. However, during late afternoon session, a sudden bout of buying interest pulled the market in green. Since then, NIFTY kept rising till the closing bell, registering the day’s high of 5244.60. METAL, CAPITAL GOODS and AUTO Sectors were the top gainers of the day, inching NIFTY higher, while CONSUMER DURABLE Sector was the biggest loser for the day. Finally, NIFTY ended at 5235.70 for the day, registering a robust closing above the levels of 5220.  

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Yesterday, NIFTY crossed this level on the closing basis too. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Now, the level of 5220.56 (50.00% Level of Retracement) is the next resistance level to be tested by NIFTY. The levels of 4957.07 (61.80% Level of Retracement) will now act as the immediate Support Level for NIFTY. NIFTY has now crossed all the resistance levels and also closed above the level of 5200. It may witness a pause at the level of 5220 to move ahead for the levels of 5300/5440 or may also revert from this level to 5050/4950. Consecutive two – three closing above the levels of 5220, will lead NIFTY to the levels of 5300/5440. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, U.K. will be coming out with its PMI Construction for the month of January. Producer Price Index for the month of December will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. U.S. will be coming out with its Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.

Q3 FY12 Results Season has commenced in India. Some of the important results to be announced tomorrow are of ANDHRABANK, CHENNPETRO, CORPBANK, EIH, ESCORTS, ESSAR PORTS, GILLETTE INDIA, HEXAWARE, MANAPPURAM FINANCE, MARICO, PIRHEALTH, PROCTER & GAMBLE, RCF, TNPL, THERMAX and WHIRLPOOL. MUNICH RE GROUP AG and DEUTSCHE BANK AG will be coming out with their quarterly earnings in GERMANY. UNILEVER PLC and ASTRAZENECA PLC will be announcing their quarterly results in U.K. SARA LEE CORP, VIACOM INC, KELLOG CO, MASTERCARD INC, TIDEWATER INC, CUMMINS INC and BLACKSTON GROUP PLC will be announcing their quarterly results in U.S.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to take advantage of this short term move, which may pay off excellent returns.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 5010.88, 4851.34 and 5194.83, respectively on the closing basis. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the overbought zone.


What does Indicators Say?
                                          

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 69.86 and 67.74, respectively. The indicator is moving towards ovebought zone from the oversold zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 174.90 and 128.79, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 36.39, -DI: 16.97, ADX: 23.58: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 4851.345010.88 and 5194.83, respectively on the closing basis.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (01st February, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 1676.49 Crore in Cash while Net Selling of Rs. 271.30 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 427.18 Crore and of Rs. 339.73 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Futures, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 494.11 Crore and of Rs. 1.50 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Options, respectively.  

NIFTY FEB FUTURE ended at a Premium of 26.45 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

SESAGOA:        Can touch the levels of 228/230, if crosses the level of 224.
TATAPOWER:    Can touch the levels of 112.50/113.50, if crosses the level of 110.60.
TATASTEEL:     Can touch the levels of 482/485, if crosses the level of 472.

COALINDIA:      Can dip to the levels of 310/308, if breaches the level of 316.

Pre Market Calls:

ABAN: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 478 for the TARGETS of 488/490, with the STRICT SL of 472. (Only for HIGH RISK Traders).

SUNTV: Buy AT THE LEVELS OF 323-324 for the TARGETS of 330/334, with the STRICT SL of 319. 

FINANTECH: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 770 for the TARGETS of 785/792, with the STRICT SL of 760. 

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5250 / 5280 / 5320 levels. At the same time, 5180 / 5150 / 5120 will act as major intraday support levels.

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