Monday, February 6, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 07th February 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Bearish Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern. It signals a market top or a resistance level. Since it is seen after an advance, a Bearish Hanging Man Pattern signals that selling pressure is starting to increase. The low of the long lower shadow indicates that the sellers pushed prices lower during the session. Even though the bulls regained their footing and drove prices higher by the finish, the appearance of this selling pressure after a rally is a serious warning signal. The confirmation of this Candlestick formation may be in the form of a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close on the next trading day. NIFTY started off trade with a Gap Up Opening of almost 53 points triggered by positive global cues. In the morning session itself, NIFTY marked an intraday high of 5390.05, but did not even touch or cross the level of 5400. However since then, amid high volatility the market kept losing ground till late afternoon session. It was during this course of trade NIFTY slipped in red for fraction of seconds and registered the intraday low of 5327.25, maintaining well above the levels of 5320. Later, the market recovered from the lower levels and ended on a firm note.  REALTY & INFRA, CAPITAL GOODS, METAL, PSU, BANKING & FINANCE, CONSUMER DURABLES and AUTO Sectors were the top gainers of the day, inching NIFTY higher, while PHARMA Sector was the biggest loser for the day. Finally, NIFTY ended at 5361.65 for the day, registering a closing above the next resistance level of 5350.  

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Yesterday, NIFTY crossed this level on the closing basis too. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Now, the level of 5433.52 (31.80% Level of Retracement) is the next resistance level to be tested by NIFTY. The levels of 5220.56 (50.00% Level of Retracement) will now act as the immediate Support Level for NIFTY. NIFTY has now crossed all the resistance levels and also closed above the level of 5200. As mentioned earlier, NIFTY may witness a pause at the level of 5220 to move ahead for the levels of 5300/5440 or may also revert from this level to 5050/4950. NIFTY crossed the level of 5220 with excellent spurt and even touched the level of 5334.85. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index, Trade Balance and Current Account for the month of December. BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the month of January will be announced in U.K. GERMANY will be announcing its Industrial Production for the month of December. Consumer Credit Change for the month of December and IBP / TIPP Economic Optimism for the month of January will be announced in U.S.

Q3 FY12 Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. Some of the important results to be announced tomorrow in INDIA are of FINOLEX INDS, HINDUJA VENT, INDIA INFOLINE, JPINFRATEC, JPPOWER and MAHSEAMLESS.

BP PLC and GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC will be coming out with their quarterly earnings U.K. COCA-COLA CO and WALT DISNEY CO will be announcing their quarterly results in U.S.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to take advantage of this short term move, which may pay off excellent returns.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 5091.62, 4887.03 and 5091.62, respectively on the closing basis. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the overbought zone.

What does Indicators Say?                                           

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 75.00 and 70.60, respectively. The indicator is moving towards ovebought zone from the oversold zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 195.40 and 159.25, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 42.37, -DI: 13.98, ADX: 28.04: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 4887.035091.62 and 5188.15, respectively on the closing basis.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (06th February, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 997.94 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 469.30 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 318.57 Crore and of Rs. 256.02 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Index Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 61.02 Crore and of Rs. 44.27 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.  

NIFTY FEB FUTURE ended at a Premium of 5.20 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BHEL:               Can touch the levels of 278/280, if crosses the level of 272.
SIEMENS:          Can touch the levels of 805/810, if crosses the level of 785.

HINDUNILVR:     Can dip to the levels of 378/376, if breaches the level of 386.
SESAGOA:        Can dip to the levels of 222/220, if breaches the level of 228.

Pre Market Calls:

JSWSTEEL: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 750 for the TARGETS of 765/772, with the STRICT SL of 741.

RECLTD: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 218 for the TARGETS of 222/225, with the STRICT SL of 215. 


For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5380 / 5420 / 5450 levels. At the same time, 5320 / 5280 / 5250 will act as major intraday support levels.

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