Thursday, February 9, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 10th February 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern, with a thick body. The candle engulfed its previous day’s candle, but still it could not completely engulf the candles made on the 07th February, 2012. When NIFTY will completely cross or engulf this day’s candle, it will move ahead in the northwards direction in the forthcoming trading sessions. After witnessing a choppy session for most of the day, the market soared to new heights to recoup the day’s losses in the last half hour of trade. NIFTY opened flat with a negative bias of almost 25 points. After the opening, it moved very range bound (from 5350 to 5380) till the opening of European Markets. The market started gaining momentum after a robust opening of its European peers amid positive cues about the Greek debt talks. The European markets traded in the positive terrain majorly pulled up by banks and oil firms. METAL Stocks pulled the market in green, followed by REALTY & INFRA and BANKING & FINANCE Sector stocks. NIFTY moved to the day’s high level of 5423.40, crossing the level crucial resistance level of 5400, however, for the day it made a low of 5338.90. METAL and REALTY & INFRA Sectors were the top Gainers of the day, pushing NIFTY higher, while PHARMA, CONSUMER GOODS and OIL & GAS Sector were the biggest losers for the day. Finally, NIFTY ended at 5412.35 for the day, registering a robust close above the level of 5400.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. The 20-Days EMA is on the verge of crossing the 200-Days SMA, which will result in a Positive Moving average Crossover (The Shorter Term Moving Average crossing the Longer Term Moving Average from downside). This crossover may lead NIFTY to more heights in forthcoming trading sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Now, the level of 5433.52 (31.80% Level of Retracement) is the next resistance level to be tested by NIFTY. The levels of 5220.56 (50.00% Level of Retracement) will now act as the immediate Support Level for NIFTY. NIFTY has now crossed all the resistance levels and also closed above the level of 5200. As mentioned earlier, NIFTY may witness a pause at the level of 5220 to move ahead for the levels of 5300/5440 or may also revert from this level to 5050/4950. NIFTY is currently taking an immediate support of 5400 levels on closing basis.

On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its Trade Balance for the month of January. Consumer Price Index for the month of January will be announced in GERMANY. U.K. will be coming out with its Producer price Index – Input and Producer Price Index – Output for the month of January. Trade Balance for the month of December, Monthly Budget Statement for the month of January and Reuters / Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the month of February will be announced in U.S. INDIA will be coming out with its IIP (Index of Industrial Production) Data for the month of December.

Q3 FY12 Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. Some of the important results to be announced tomorrow in INDIA are of APOLLOHOSP, AUROPHARMA, BFUTILITIE, BRFL, BPCL, BRITANNIA, DLF, ESSAROIL, GESHIP, HINDUSTAN ORGANIC, HOTEL LEELA, IDFC, JSWSTEEL, MMTC, MOREPAN LAB, MTNL, NEYVELILIG, PANACEA BIOTECH, PANTALOONR, PENTAMEDIA GRAPHICS, PIPAVAV DEFENCE, RELCAPITAL, RCOM, SRTRANSFIN, TATACHEM, TATAPOWER, TRIGYN TECH and UCAL FUEL. ALCATEL LUCENT SA, MICHELIN SCA and TOTAL SA will be coming out with its quarterly earnings in FRANCE. BARCLAYS PLC will be announcing their quarterly numbers in U.K.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to take advantage of this short term move, which may pay off excellent returns.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 5164.98, 4919.57 and 5180.67, respectively on the closing basis. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the overbought zone.

What does Indicators Say?                                           

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 75.24 and 72.16, respectively. The indicator is moving towards ovebought zone from the oversold zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 203.40 and 178.90, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 37.82, -DI: 11.09, ADX: 33.04: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 5164.98, 4919.57 and 5180.67, respectively on the closing basis. 

Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (09th February, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 1200.66 Crore in Cash while Net Selling of Rs. 97.36 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 57.54 Crore, of Rs. 259.17 Crore and of Rs. 30.74 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 250.09 Crore was witnessed in Index Options.  

NIFTY FEB FUTURE ended at a Premium of 24.70 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BPCL:                 Can touch the levels of 612/615, if crosses the level of 600.
INFY:               Can touch the levels of 2850/2860, if crosses the level of 2820.
JINDALSTEL:     Can touch the levels of 620/625, if crosses the level of 606.
NTPC:              Can touch the levels of 184/185, if crosses the level of 180.50.
SIEMENS:          Can touch the levels of 820/825, if crosses the level of 804.
STER:               Can touch the levels of 133/134, if crosses the level of 130.
TATAPOWER:    Can touch the levels of 114/115, if crosses the level of 112.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5450 / 5480 / 5520 levels. At the same time, 5380 / 5350 / 5320 will act as major intraday support levels.

No comments:

Post a Comment