Thursday, February 16, 2012

Nifty Outlook for 17th February 2012



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Doji Candlestick Pattern, which signals a lot of uncertainty in the market. Market is itself confused about its direction. Yesterday, a great tussle between the Bulls and the Bears was witnessed. The market took off trade on a weak note on the back of negative global cues. Asian markets dropped following a delay in decision of the Greek bailout package. NIFTY registered a flat opening with negative bias of almost 15-20 points. Sentiments weakened further following a profit booking post day before yesterday’s spectacular rally. Since the opening bell, NIFTY kept hitting ground and marked an intraday low of 5483.75, but it did not breached the levels of 5480. However, irrespective of the high volatility, the markets picked up momentum to touch day’s high. NIFTY marked an intraday high of 5531.40 in the last hour of trade. REALTY & INFRA and POWER Sectors were the top Gainers of the day, pulling NIFTY higher and higher, while METAL, OIL & GAS, CONSUMER DURABLES and FMCG Sectors were the biggest losers for the day. Finally, NIFTY ended at 5521.95 for the day, marking a close above the important levels of 5520. It was 6-months High closing for the NIFTY after marking a 28-Months Low in December 2011.

Technically, as mentioned earlier, “The 20-Days EMA is on the verge of crossing the 200-Days SMA, which will result in a Positive Moving average Crossover (The Shorter Term Moving Average crossing the Longer Term Moving Average from downside). This crossover may lead NIFTY to more heights in forthcoming trading sessions”. The 20-Days EMA has crossed the 200-Days SMA from downside, but NIFTY is facing a resistance of the level of 5400 on the closing basis. Two – three consecutive closing above the levels of 5440, may lead NIFTY to the levels of 5550/5650 too. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 28-Months Low marked 4531.15 by NIFTY (21st December, 2011). Now, the level of 5433.52 (31.80% Level of Retracement) is the next resistance level to be tested by NIFTY. Yesterday, NIFTY crossed this level by marking a Gap Up Opening above it and it even closed above it at 5531.95. If NIFTY manages to close above it again for two-three consecutive sessions, it may move to the levels of 5646.49 (23.60% Level of Retracement). The levels of 5220.56 (50.00% Level of Retracement) will now act as the immediate Support Level for NIFTY.

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Producer Price Index for the month of January and Purchasing Manager Index Services for the month of February. Construction Output for the month of December and Purchasing Manager Index Services for the month of February will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. U.K. will be coming out with its Retail Sales for the month of January. Consumer Price Index and Leading Indicators for the month of January will be announced in U.S.

Q3 FY12 Results Season has commenced all over the Globe. Some of the important results to be announced tomorrow in INDIA are of CRISIL and ESSAROIL. LAFARGE SA will be announcing its quarterly results in FRANCE.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to take advantage of this short term move, which may pay off excellent returns.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 5279.88, 4963.76 and 5172.19, respectively on the closing basis. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are now heading towards the overbought zone.

What does Indicators Say?                                          
1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 76.72 and 74.08, respectively. The indicator is moving towards ovebought zone from the oversold zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 194.76 and 188.90, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 36.99, -DI: 7.76, ADX: 41.31: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the trend of the market is strengthening. 

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days)NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and also 200-Days SMA of 5279.88, 4963.76 and 5172.19, respectively on the closing basis. 

Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (16th February, 2012) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 184.31 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 679.082 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 329.57 Crore, of Rs. 946.17 Crore and of Rs. 34.78 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1989.59Crore was witnessed in Index Options.  

NIFTY FEB FUTURE ended at a Premium of 15.85 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BHEL:                   Can touch the levels of 292/294, if crosses the level of 286.
HEROMOTOCO: Can touch the levels of 2220/2230, if crosses the level of 2190.
JINDALSTEL:        Can touch the levels of 658/662, if crosses the level of 645.
MARUTI:           Can touch the levels of 1385/1395, if crosses the level of 1365.
TATAPOWER:      Can touch the levels of 116.20/117.50, if crosses the level of 114.50.

COALINDIA:        Can dip to the levels of 312/310, if breaches the level of 319.

A positive movement may be witnessed in AVIATION, TEXTILE, SHIPPING, BANKING & FINANCE and REALTY & INFRA Stocks for the day.

Pre Market Calls:

BOMDYEING: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 461 for the TARGETS of472/475, with the STRICT SL of 455.

FORTIS: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 116 for the TARGETS of 120/122, with the STRICT SL of 114.30. 

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5550 / 5580 / 5620 levels. At the same time, 5480 / 5450 / 5420 will act as major intraday support levels.

No comments:

Post a Comment