Monday, August 22, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 23rd August 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Long White Candlestick Pattern, with a small lower shadow. NIFTY witnessed a very flat opening of almost 20-25 points in the positive terrain. However, sentiment deteriorated soon and the market fell below the Friday’s closing in a jiffy. The street continued volatile trade throughout the morning session. NIFTY marked a low of 4808.75 for the day. Nonetheless, just as it appeared that the bears would take the driver’s seat yet again, the key indices re-entered the positive terrain on the back of bottom fishing by investors. NIFTY after kissing its day’s low of 4808.75, reverted sharply and pulled back to the levels of 4900, by marking a high of 4910.05 for the day. NIFTY recovered more than 100 points from the day’s low. Till the opening of the European Markets, Indian Markets didn’t respond on the either side and with the positive opening of European Markets, Indian Markets marked day’s high. OIL & GAS, POWER and METAL Sectors took the lead and made markets recovered, while, IT and BANKING & FINANCE Sectors traded in negative territory for the day. For the day, NIFTY closed near to its day’s high at 4898.80.

Fear all over the Globe is the main cause of such fierceful crash within a short span of time. Still more bad news is in the offing regarding the International Economies. Indian Markets are just paying the cost of Globalization, hence affected to that level much. Right now, no signs are visible for a Pullback, but at the same time, traders and investors should be ready for a sharp pullback, as this crash is coming with huge Gaps and with volume backed by fears more.

Technically, NIFTY finally touched the most awaited level of 4800, awaited since the next week of Diwali 2010. Yesterday, it was witnessed that the level of 4800 was acting as a Good Support for NIFTY. It made a low of 4808.75 for the day and reverted form the day’s low. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA have again made a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. On Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4750 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. The so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 15-Months Low marked 4796.10 by NIFTY (19th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5160 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. A pull back till the levels of 5150 or 5200 can be witnessed in the coming trading sessions.  

On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its HSBC Manufacturing PMI. Preliminary Machine Tool Orders and Corporate Service Price for the month of July will be announced in JAPAN. GERMANY will be announcing its Purchasing Manager Index Services, Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment and ZEW Survey – Current Situation for the month of August. Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, Purchasing Manager Index Services, ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment and Consumer Confidence will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. UK will be coming out with its BBA Mortgage Approvals for the month of July and CBI Industrial Trends Survey- Orders for the month of August. New Homes Sales for the month of July and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for the month of August will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.  

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5633.88, 5418.22 and 5184.68, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their oversold zone with every sell off in the markets, signaling a pull back at any point of time in the markets.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 27.31 and 28.30, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.
2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -254.55 and -183.55, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 8.54, -DI: 40.31, ADX: 38.84: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market is in the trending range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of of these indicators are 5633.88, 5418.22 and 5184.68.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (22nd August, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 786.32 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 1182.19 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 1921.45 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 143.24 Crore and of Rs. 892.85 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 632.26 Crore and of Rs. 836.83 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Index Options, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 257.95 Crore and of Rs. 28.95 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures and Stock Options.  

NIFTY AUG FUTURE ended at a Premium of 11.65 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BAJAJ-AUTO:   Can touch the levels of 1500/1510, if crosses the level of 1485.
DRREDDY:        Can touch the levels of 1470/1480, if crosses the level of 1455.
HINDALCO:       Can touch the levels of 149/150, if crosses the level of 145.
IDFC:                Can touch the levels of 115/116, if crosses the level of 113.
RCOM:              Can touch the levels of 82/83, if crosses the level of 79.40.
RELIANCE:        Can touch the levels of 770/775, if crosses the level of 760.
SAIL:                Can touch the levels of 114/115, if crosses the level of 111.
TATAPOWER:    Can touch the levels of 1120/1130, if crosses the level of 1090.
TATASTEEL:     Can touch the levels of 482/485, if breaches the level of 470.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4920 / 4950 / 4980 levels. At the same time, 4850 / 4820 / 4780 will act as major intraday support levels. 

  

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