Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 24th August 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern, with a longer lower shadow, indicating that it closed much above the day’s low; hence, bulls were in action. The candlestick is appearing more of a Bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern. This observation reduces the previous bearish sentiment causing the short traders to feel increasingly uneasier with their bearish positions. Markets ended higher as bargain hunting in IT, technology and capital goods stocks eased concerns of a downswing, throwing in some confidence to recently beaten-up markets. NIFTY witnessed a very flat opening of almost 20-25 points in the positive terrain. However, sentiment deteriorated soon and the market fell below the previous day’s closing in a jiffy. The street continued volatile trade throughout the morning session. NIFTY marked a low of 4863.80 for the day. Nonetheless, just as it appeared that the bears would take the driver’s seat yet again, the key indices re-entered the positive terrain on the back of bottom fishing by investors. NIFTY after kissing its day’s low of 4863.80, reverted sharply and pulled back to the levels of 4950, by marking a high of 4965.80 for the day. NIFTY recovered more than 100 points from the day’s low. In the second half of trading session, the rally became stronger backed by Robust opening of European Bourses. IT, CAPITAL GOODS and CONSUMER GOODS Sectors took the lead and made markets recovered. For the day, NIFTY closed near to its day’s high at 4948.90.

Fear all over the Globe is the main cause of such fierceful crash within a short span of time. Still more bad news is in the offing regarding the International Economies. Indian Markets are just paying the cost of Globalization, hence affected to that level much. Right now, no signs are visible for a Pullback, but at the same time, traders and investors should be ready for a sharp pullback, as this crash is coming with huge Gaps and with volume backed by fears more.

Technically, NIFTY finally touched the most awaited level of 4800, awaited since the next week of Diwali 2010. Yesterday, it was witnessed that the level of 4850 was acting as a Good Support for NIFTY. It made a low of 4863.80 for the day and reverted form the day’s low. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA have again made a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4750 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. The so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 21-Months Low marked 4796.10 by NIFTY (19th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5160 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. A pull back till the levels of 5150 or 5200 can be witnessed in the coming trading sessions.  

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its IFO-Current Assessment, IFO-Business Climate and IFO-Expectations for the month of August. Industrial New Orders for the month of June will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. UK will be coming out with its Nationwide Consumer Confidence for the month of July and Nationwide Housing Prices for the month of August. MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Price Index for the month of June and Durable Goods Orders for the month of July will be announced in US.
Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.  

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5627.21, 5407.54 and 5162.22, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their oversold zone with every sell off in the markets, signaling a pull back at any point of time in the markets.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 31.76 and 29.00, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -262.75 and -199.27, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 11.59, -DI: 37.64, ADX: 39.84: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market is in the trending range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of of these indicators are 5627.21, 5407.54 and 5162.22.

Some Trading Stats of the Tuesday’s (23rd August, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 100.34 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 1723.21 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 5.76 Crore and of Rs. 238.09 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1426.03 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 488.49 Crore, of Rs. 1072.42 Crore, of Rs. 148.27 Crore and of Rs. 14.03 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.  

NIFTY AUG FUTURE ended at a Discount of 1.50 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1110/1120, if crosses the level of 1090.
BHARTIARTL:    Can touch the levels of 410/412, if crosses the level of 402.
BHEL:               Can touch the levels of 1785/1795, if crosses the level of 1760.
INFY:                Can touch the levels of 2325/2335, if crosses the level of 2280.
TATASTEEL:     Can touch the levels of 486/490, if crosses the level of 478.
TCS:                 Can touch the levels of 1000/1010, if crosses the level of 985.

Pre Market Calls:

BANKINDIA:    Buy only if it trades above 320 for the Targets of 326/328, with theStrict SL of 315.

PATNI:            Buy only if it trades above 268 for the Targets of 273/277, with the Strict SL of 264.

JISLJALEQS:  Buy only if it trades above 176 for the Targets of 180/182, with the Strict SL of 173.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4980 / 5020 / 5050 levels. At the same time, 4920 / 4880 / 4850 will act as major intraday support levels. 


No comments:

Post a Comment