Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 25th August 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Short Black Candlestick Pattern. After opening on a weak note, a rise in RIL and banking stocks pulled the markets to their intraday highs, in green. NIFTY opened flat with the negative bias of almost 10-15 points. In early trade only, it made a high of 4962.40. However, the marginal rise witnessed in the first hour of trade was short-lived. Bourses fall back in red, triggered by weakness in global markets. NIFTY traded in a tight range of only 30 points in the mid-afternoon session and lost sheen fifteen minutes before closing bell as it registered fresh intraday lows. NIFTY dipped below the strong trading support level of 4900 and made a low of 4875.30. The broader market, which outperformed the peers for most part of session, too lost ground during the last hour of the trade. Sectorally, selling was seen across the board. AUTO, METAL, BANKING & FINANCE, CONSUMER DURABLES and IT were the major laggards. The overall market breadth too turned weak at the closing bell. NIFTY lost almost 90 points from day’s high. Extreme volatility of the markets, have made traders more fearful. For the day, NIFTY closed near to its day’s low at 4888.90.

Fear all over the Globe is the main cause of such fierceful crash within a short span of time. Still more bad news is in the offing regarding the International Economies. Indian Markets are just paying the cost of Globalization, hence affected to that level much. Right now, no signs are visible for a Pullback, but at the same time, traders and investors should be ready for a sharp pullback, as this crash is coming with huge Gaps and with volume backed by fears more.

Technically, NIFTY finally touched the most awaited level of 4800, awaited since the next week of Diwali 2010. Yesterday, it was witnessed that the level of 4900 was acting as a Good Trading Support Level for NIFTY, but in the last half an hour of trade NIFTY breached it and made a low of 4875.30 for the day. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA have again made a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. A Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4750 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. The so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 21-Months Low marked 4796.10 by NIFTY (19th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5160 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. A pull back till the levels of 5150 or 5200 can be witnessed in the coming trading sessions.  

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its National Consumer Price Index for the month of July and Tokyo Consumer Price Index for the month of August. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for the month of September will be announced in GERMANY. UK will be coming out with its CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realized. Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter. A very volatile trading session can be witnessed due to F&O Expiry for the month of August, as it is the last Thursday of the month.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5620.09, 5395.31 and 5136.19, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their oversold zone with every sell off in the markets, signaling a pull back at any point of time in the markets.

What does Indicators Say?

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 29.44 and 29.08, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are -262.93 and -212.00, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 10.93, -DI: 35.48, ADX: 40.77: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 40, indicates that the market is in the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of of these indicators are 5620.09, 5395.31 and 5136.19.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (24th August, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 883.48 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 1938.95 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 856.94 Crore and of Rs. 1073.45 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades and Others Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 207.18 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 338.61 Crore, of Rs. 1409.79 Crore, of Rs. 166.96 Crore and of Rs. 23.60 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.  

NIFTY AUG FUTURE ended at a Discount of 5.05 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

HINDUNILVR:     Can touch the levels of 325/327, if crosses the level of 320.
RCOM:              Can touch the levels of 82.60/83, if crosses the level of 80.

RELCAPITAL:     Can dip to the levels of 388/385, if breaches the level of 394.
SBIN:                Can dip to the levels of 1970/1950, if breaches the level of 1990.
TATAPOWER:    Can dip to the levels of 1015/1005, if breaches the level of 1035.
      TATASTEEL:     Can dip to the levels of 440/438, if breaches the level of 450.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4920 / 4950 / 4980 levels. At the same time, 4850 / 4820 / 4780 will act as major intraday support levels. 

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