Sunday, September 25, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 26th September 2011



On Friday, NIFTY made a Doji Candlestick Pattern, showing indecision about the direction of the market and it represents a tug of war between buyers and sellers. Doji simply shows that prices has moved above and below the opening level during the day, but then the market closed either exactly at or very near the opening level. The overall result is a standoff. It shows that neither the bulls nor the bears were able to gain control during the day and it is possible that a turning point can develop soon. The appearance of a Doji after a decline or a long black candlestick signals the fact that the selling pressure is diminishing. Essentially Doji gives the message that the forces of supply and demand are becoming more evenly matched and consequently a change in trend may be near. Equities took yet another run on losses, as investors fled stocks on heightened concerns of a fresh global recession.  The market extended the day before losses, kick-started trade on a negative note on the back of negative global cues. NIFTY registered a Gap Down Opening of 50 points and continued trading in Red. The bears muscled up during early afternoon trade after Moody’s downgraded debt rating of eight Greek banks by two notches. Nonetheless, stocks edged off lows and rose above the level of 4920 after the Group of 20 nations conveyed to take "strong and coordinated" actions to stabilize the Global Financial System. NIFTY climbed to the highest point of the day and marked it as 4930.25. The uptrend was, however, short-lived as investors turned risk averse and chose to liquidate their holdings. The Downside was particularly led by METAL, CAPITAL GOODS and AUTO Sector Stocks. Finally, for the day NIFTY ended almost at the same level of opening at 4867.75 (just 6 points away from the Opening Level).

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from this level for the third time and closed much below it. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term.

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Corporate Service Price for the month of August. IFO-Current Assessment, IFO-Expectations and IFO-Business Climate for the month of September will be announced in GERMANY. US will be announcing its New Home sales for the month of August.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5520.07, 5193.77 and 5168.40, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards their oversold zone.


What does Indicators Say?
 

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 39.23 and 45.81, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 42.09 and 18.45, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 22.43, -DI: 36.20, ADX: 21.18: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 40, indicates that the market is in the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5543.69, 5254.98 and 5047.89. 



Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (23rd September, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 1279.61 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 119.32 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 29.64 Crore and of Rs. 647.33 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 160.18 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.  

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 367.76 Crore and of Rs. 5.18 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures and Stock Options, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 446.79 Crore and of Rs. 45.47 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Index Options.  

NIFTY SEP FUTURE ended at a Premium of 2.95 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BHARTIARTL:    Can touch the levels of 378/380, if crosses the level of 375.
RCOM:              Can touch the levels of 81.40/82, if crosses the level of 80.
RELCAPITAL:     Can touch the levels of 415/418, if crosses the level of 405.
RPOWER:          Can touch the levels of 84.50/85.40, if crosses the level of 83.20.
TATAPOWER:    Can touch the levels of 1003/1015, if crosses the level of 993.
CIPLA:              Can touch the levels of 288/290, if crosses the level of 285.

AXISBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 1070/1060, if breaches the level of 1085.
DRREDDY:        Can dip to the levels of 1465/1455, if breaches the level of 1485.
HDFC:              Can dip to the levels of 615/610, if breaches the level of 624.
HDFCBANK:      Can dip to the levels of 448/445, if breaches the level of 456.
HEROMOTOCO: Can dip to the levels of 2015/2005, if breaches the level of 2035.
HINDALCO:       Can dip to the levels of 131/129, if breaches the level of 134.
RELIANCE:        Can dip to the levels of 760/755, if breaches the level of 770.
SAIL:                Can dip to the levels of 103/102, if breaches the level of 105.
TATAMOTORS:  Can dip to the levels of 144/142, if breaches the level of 147.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4880 / 1920 / 4950 levels. At the same time, 4820 / 4780 / 4750 will act as major intraday support levels. 
 
For the week, resistance for NIFTY comes at 5090 & 5150 levels. At the same time, 4720 & 4650 will act as major support levels.




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