Monday, September 26, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 27th September 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern, reducing the previous bearish sentiment causing the short traders to feel increasingly uneasier with their bearish positions. If the hammer is characterized by a close above the open thus causing a white body, the situation looks even better for the bulls. This pattern requires confirmation of the implied trend reversal by a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close the next trading day. Negative global cues, weak sentiments and cautious money waiting on the sidelines resulted into a weak trading session. The market kicked off trade on a negative note and kept slipping gradually till it touched intraday lows. NIFTY continuously breached its important intraday support level of 4820 and 4780 and marked a low of 4758.85 for the day (down 120 points). However, buying emerged in some IT and BANKING Heavyweights, which pulled the key indices to the intraday highs of 4879.80, though it was not good enough to boost it to the positive side. NIFTY recovered almost 120 points after the second half of trading session. A huge volatility again witnessed in the markets, which kept the traders away. A weak opening of European markets added to the negative sentiments, but as they rebounded 1% from the day’s lows, Indian market too gathered further strength. CONSUMER DURABLES, METAL, OIL & GAS, FMCG, CAPITAL GOODS, POWER and AUTO Sector were the biggest loser for the day. Unfavourable global indications, turmoil in commodity markets and prudent attitude kept most of the buyers away. Finally, for the day NIFTY ended above the level of 4800 at 4835.40.

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from this level for the third time and closed much below it. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term.

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Gfk Consumer Survey for the month of October. M3 Money Supply for the month of August will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be announcing its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices for the month of July, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Consumer Confidence for the month of September.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5514.37, 5178.77 and 5013.43, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards their oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
  

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 37.84 and 44.22, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 24.11 and 19.58, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 20.71, -DI: 37.91, ADX: 21.76: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trending range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5514.37, 5178.77 and 5013.43.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (26th September, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 1083.83 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 1419.66 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 228.34 Crore and of Rs. 871.52 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 980.53 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.  

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 113.18 Crore, of Rs. 1200.71 Crore, of Rs. 89.73 Crore and of Rs. 16.04 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.  

NIFTY SEP FUTURE ended at a Premium of 8.90 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

HINDALCO:       Can touch the levels of 132/134, if crosses the level of 128.

AXISBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 1030/1020, if breaches the level of 1050.
      GAIL:                Can dip to the levels of 403/400, if breaches the level of 409.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4860 / 4890 / 4920 levels. At the same time, 4810 / 4780 / 4750 will act as major intraday support levels. 
  

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