Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 28th September 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Opening Marubozu Candlestick Pattern, indicating that it was a typical bull day and strength of the bulls is enough to cause some concern among the bears. Markets confirmed the formation of Bullish Hammer Candlestick Pattern formed a day before, this pattern requires confirmation of the implied trend reversal by a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close the next trading day. NIFTY marked a Gap Up Opening of almost 70 points on the back of robust Global Cues. It continued its upside move till the end of the session marking the day’s high of 4982.95. The up move of the benchmarks was boosted after reports suggested that finance ministry was considering some tax cuts on equities to reduce transaction costs and increase participation in the market. Furthermore, buzz around European Union's new plans to revive its debt-laden countries ticked up sentiment globally. Negative global cues, weak sentiments and cautious money waiting on the sidelines resulted into a weak trading session. Buying action was witnessed all across the board, but at the same time it won’t be wrong to say it as a strong pull back due to short covering. REALTY & INFRA, IT and OIL & GAS were the Sectors which led the market to day’s high. Finally, for the day NIFTY ended above the level of 4950 and near to the day’s high at 4971.25.

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from this level for the third time and closed much below it. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term.

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Retail Trade and Large Retailer’s Sales for the month of August. Consumer Price Index for the month of September will be announced in GERMANY. UK will be announcing Bank of England Credit Conditions Report. MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Goods Orders and Fed’s Bernanke Sppech will be the major events and announcements to be looked in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5509.70, 5166.20 and 5009.42, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards their oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
   

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 46.42 and 44.66, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 15.72 and 18.81, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 25.21, -DI: 34.44, ADX: 21.31: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trending range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5509.70, 5166.20 and 5009.42.

Some Trading Stats of the Tuesday’s (27th September, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 34.08 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 2782.78 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 35.61 Crore and of Rs. 2057.77 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 673.73 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.  

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 1255.82 Crore, of Rs. 1062.71 Crore, of Rs. 432.52 Crore and of Rs. 31.73 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.  

NIFTY SEP FUTURE ended at a Premium of 6.60 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

ACC:                Can touch the levels of 1115/1125, if crosses the level of 1095.
BHEL:               Can touch the levels of 1680/1690, if crosses the level of 1660.
DLF:                 Can touch the levels of 221/223, if crosses the level of 218.
HINDALCO:       Can touch the levels of 138/139, if crosses the level of 135.
HINDUNILVR:     Can touch the levels of 348/350, if crosses the level of 339.
JPASSOCIAT:    Can touch the levels of 76.50/77.20, if crosses the level of 74.
TATAMOTORS:  Can touch the levels of 160/162, if crosses the level of 157.
      TCS:                 Can touch the levels of 1060/1070, if crosses the level of 1040.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4990 / 5020 / 5050 levels. At the same time, 4950 / 4920 / 4880 will act as major intraday support levels. 

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