Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern, with a
longer higher shadow. The bourses kick-started trade on a positive note,
tracking strong Asian markets. NIFTY opened with a gain of 20 points. Sentiments
improved globally after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that
US may willingly offer help to crisis-stricken Greece if need arises. The
benchmarks retained positive terrain throughout the morning session and made
intraday highs during afternoon trade, courtesy strong opening across European
peers. NIFTY taking the support of 4780, made an intraday high of 4827.80. Nonetheless,
just as it appeared that the bulls have managed to stage a valiant fightback
after day’s before drubbing, the benchmarks witnessed a near-vertical downfall.
Soon, NIFTY was down to its intraday low of 4741.00. The key indices did manage
to make it to the positive terrain once, the reign in the green, however,
lasted for a very short period. BANKING Stocks continued posting high losses
for the day post SBI’s downgrade by Moody’s. However, the index was able
to write-off a chunk of losses after the aforementioned rating agency
reaffirmed a C rating on India’s largest private sector lender ICICI
Bank. Finally, for the day NIFTY managed to close above the level of 4720
again and closed at 4751.30, near to the day’s low.
Technically, NIFTY took a Strong
support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too
that the so-called level of 4800 got
achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in
the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders
and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and
50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling
pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple
Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200
is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis,
whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions.
A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th
November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th
August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the
first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the
NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from
this level for the third time and closed much below it. Still extreme
uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term
period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results
ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading,
which will appear many times in between.
5170 on the upper side and 4720
on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of
September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same
level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further
direction of the market in the short term.
On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its BoJ
(Bank of Japan) Interest Rate Decision, Coincident Index and Leading Economic
Index for the month of August. Producer Price Index – Output and Producer Price
Index – Input for the month of September will be announced in UK. GERMANY will be announcing its Industrial
Production for the month of August. Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit
Change for the month of August, Average Weekly Hours, Unemployment Rate and
Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of September will be announced in US.
Traders are suggested to trade
cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas,
Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give
better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns
thereafter.
NIFTY is trading below all its
Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5479.51, 5081.67
and 4943.97, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days
MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are again heading towards
their oversold zone.
What does Indicators Say?
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 56.32 and 10.09, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 18.70, -DI: 33.39, ADX: 20.36: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trending range right now.
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5479.51, 5081.67 and 4943.97.
Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (05th October,
2011) Trading Session:
Net Selling of Rs. 1008.87 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 463.23 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s
Trading Session.
Net Buying of Rs. 127.35 Crore and of Rs. 1233.90 Crore was witnessed in Mutual
Funds and Others Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 835.88 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.
In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 74.53 Crore and of Rs. 21.26 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures
and Stock Options, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 421.28 Crore and of Rs. 137.75 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Futures
Segment.
NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Premium of 18.00
Points to the Spot NIFTY.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
GRASIM: Can touch the levels of 2340/2350, if crosses the level of
2325.
JPASSOCIAT: Can touch the levels of 73.20/74, if crosses the level of 71.80.
HDFCBANK: Can dip to the levels of 432/429, if breaches the level of 440.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4780 / 4820 / 4850 levels. At the same time, 4720 / 4680 / 4650 will act as major intraday support levels.
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