Thursday, October 6, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 07th October 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern, with a longer higher shadow. The bourses kick-started trade on a positive note, tracking strong Asian markets. NIFTY opened with a gain of 20 points. Sentiments improved globally after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that US may willingly offer help to crisis-stricken Greece if need arises. The benchmarks retained positive terrain throughout the morning session and made intraday highs during afternoon trade, courtesy strong opening across European peers. NIFTY taking the support of 4780, made an intraday high of 4827.80. Nonetheless, just as it appeared that the bulls have managed to stage a valiant fightback after day’s before drubbing, the benchmarks witnessed a near-vertical downfall. Soon, NIFTY was down to its intraday low of 4741.00. The key indices did manage to make it to the positive terrain once, the reign in the green, however, lasted for a very short period. BANKING Stocks continued posting high losses for the day post SBI’s downgrade by Moody’s. However, the index was able to write-off a chunk of losses after the aforementioned rating agency reaffirmed a C rating on India’s largest private sector lender ICICI Bank. Finally, for the day NIFTY managed to close above the level of 4720 again and closed at 4751.30, near to the day’s low.  

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from this level for the third time and closed much below it. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term.

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its BoJ (Bank of Japan) Interest Rate Decision, Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index for the month of August. Producer Price Index – Output and Producer Price Index – Input for the month of September will be announced in UK. GERMANY will be announcing its Industrial Production for the month of August. Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit Change for the month of August, Average Weekly Hours, Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of September will be announced in US.  

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5479.51, 5081.67 and 4943.97, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are again heading towards their oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
       

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 36.99 and 42.06, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 56.32 and 10.09, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 18.70, -DI: 33.39, ADX: 20.36: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trending range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5479.51, 5081.67 and 4943.97.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (05th October, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 1008.87 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 463.23 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 127.35 Crore and of Rs. 1233.90 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 835.88 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.  

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 74.53 Crore and of Rs. 21.26 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 421.28 Crore and of Rs. 137.75 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Futures Segment.  

NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Premium of 18.00 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

GRASIM:            Can touch the levels of 2340/2350, if crosses the level of 2325.
JPASSOCIAT:    Can touch the levels of 73.20/74, if crosses the level of 71.80.

HDFCBANK:      Can dip to the levels of 432/429, if breaches the level of 440.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4780 / 4820 / 4850 levels. At the same time, 4720 / 4680 / 4650 will act as major intraday support levels. 




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