Sunday, October 9, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 10th October 2011



On Friday, NIFTY made a Doji Candlestick Pattern, showing indecision about the direction of the market and it represents a tug of war between buyers and sellers. Doji simply shows that market moved above and below the opening price during the day, but then it closed either exactly at or very near the opening price. The overall result is a standoff. It shows that neither the bulls nor the bears were able to gain control during the day and it is possible that a turning point can develop soon. Equities rebounded strongly on Friday, with the Sensex gaining over 3%, as investors cheered European Central Bank’s plans to inject liquidity in its struggling banking system. A rally in US markets for three consecutive days helped the Nifty and the Sensex open with a huge gap up. Strong Asian cues during the day provided much needed muscle to the bulls. NIFTY opened with a gain of 130 points. However, the benchmarks shaved off gains to hit fresh intraday lows, albeit in green, during mid-afternoon trade on rise in weekly food inflation data and weakness across European peers. NIFTY marked a low of 4861.20 for the day. The calmness was, nevertheless, short-lived as strong buying emerged at pre-close session in metal counters. BANKING and METAL Stocks closed in the positive terrain, with gains of up to 5% and 3%, respectively. Finally, for the day NIFTY managed to close at 4888.05, near to the day’s low.  

Fitch Ratings issued twin cuts to two of the euro zone's largest economies as it downgraded its foreign and local currency ratings on Italy and Spain. The effect if this news flow will be witnessed in the Financial Markets all over the Globe tomorrow only.

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. NIFTY has got reverted from this level for the third time and closed much below it. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term.

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Trade Balance – BPO Basis and Current Account for the month of August. FDI – Foreign Direct Investment for the month of September will be announced in CHINA. GERMANY will be announcing its Trade Balance and Current Account Balance for the month of August. Sentix Investor Confidence for the month of October will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. UK will be announcing RICS Housing Price Balance for the month of September.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading below all its Moving Averages like 200-Days SMA, 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA of 5474.21, 5065.82 and 4938.65, respectively. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are again heading towards their oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
        

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 45.59 and 42.77, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 76.12 and 23.29, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 22.50, -DI: 29.93, ADX: 19.92: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trending range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5474.21, 5065.82 and 4938.65.

Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (07th October, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 491.55 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 2437.10 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 807.56 Crore was witnessed in Others Trades, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 51.76 Crore and of Rs. 292.57 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades.  

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 1581.59 Crore, of Rs. 861.72 Crore and of Rs. 28.40 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 34.61 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures Segment.  

NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Premium of 10.55 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1055/1065, if crosses the level of 1035.
BHEL:               Can touch the levels of 330/332, if crosses the level of 325.
IDFC:                Can touch the levels of 118/120, if crosses the level of 116.
JINDALSTL:       Can touch the levels of 491/495, if crosses the level of 485.

AMBUJACEM:    Can dip to the levels of 143/142, if breaches the level of 145.
BHARTIARTL:    Can dip to the levels of 348/345, if breaches the level of 355.

For the day, 
intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4920 / 4950 / 4980 levels. At the same time, 4850 / 4820 / 4780 will act as major intraday support levels.
 


For the week, resistance for NIFTY comes at 5010 & 5120 levels. At the same time, 4720 & 4650 will act as major support levels.

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