Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 13th October 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Long White Candlestick Pattern. Equities rose sharply, as investors cheered higher-than-expected second quarter earnings of IT bellwether Infosys Technologies. The strong uptrend was led by a flurry of buying in IT, realty, banking and capital goods stocks. Markets kick-started trade on a strong note with NIFTY witnessing a Gap Up opening of almost 35 points. Post a positive opening, the bulls tripped slightly on the back of weaker-than-expected IIP data in late morning trade. India's IIP for the month of August 2011 grew at 4.1% against 3.3% a month ago. IIP Data were below the Market Expectations of 5%, due to which NIFTY dipped to the lows of 4997.65 for the day. IN the last two and a half hours of trading session market staged a turnaround and continued its rise for the rest of the session. It reverted from the day’s low, as important intraday support of 4980 was not breached and moved strongly to the day’s high of 5109.80, also strengthening the confidence of traders by crossing the level of 5100. All the sectoral indices, led by IT and BANKEX, closed in the positive zone, with gains of up to 5.22% and 3.8% respectively. Finally, for the day NIFTY managed to close at 5099.40, closer to the day’s high level.  

Technically, NIFTY took a Strong support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too that the so-called level of 4800 got achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 4960.23 and 5034.70, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5459.66. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720 will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. Yesterday, NIFTY crossed this level by marking a high of 5109.80 for the day, but it closed just a point below it at 5099.40. It has got reverted from this level for the thrice and crossed it again for the fourth time. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term. 5170 is the level again to be watched, if NIFTY crosses it and sustains above it successfully this time, it may touch the level of 5350 this time.

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Money Supply M2+CD and Domestic Corporate Good Price Index for the month of September. Trade Balance and M2 Money Supply for the month of September will be announced in CHINA. GERMANY will be announcing its Consumer Price Index for the month of September. Goods Trade Balance for the month of August will be announced in UK. US will be coming out with Trade Balance for the month of August, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims and Monthly Budget Statement.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

A more Sector Specific and Stock Specific action would be witnessed in the markets now, as India Inc. will be coming out with its Q2 FY11 Results. PIRAMAL LIFE, PRAJIND and VSTIND are the important results to be announced tomorrow.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 4960.23 and 5034.70, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5459.66. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards their oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
           

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 56.35 and 47.66, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 65.21 and 49.26, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 28.98, -DI: 24.31, ADX: 16.99: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5459.66, 5034.70 and 4960.23.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (12th October, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 595.01 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 1443.22 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 1765.80 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1.54 Crore and of Rs. 446.47 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Trades.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 581.41 Crore, of Rs. 768.28 Crore and of Rs. 102.94 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively, while, Net Selling of Rs. 9.41 Crore was witnessed in Stock Options.

NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Premium of 13.45 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AMBUJACEM:    Can touch the levels of 153/154, if crosses the level of 150.
AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1120/1130, if crosses the level of 1100.
DLF:                 Can touch the levels of 242/245, if crosses the level of 238.
ICICIBANK:        Can touch the levels of 880/890, if crosses the level of 860.
INFY:                Can touch the levels of 2720/2730, if crosses the level of 2685.

Pre Market Calls:

ABB: Buy ONLY IF ITS TRADES ABOVE 680 for the TARGETS of 694/698, with the STRICT SL of 671.

WELCORP: Buy ONLY IF ITS TRADES ABOVE 123 for the TARGETS of 126/128, with the STRICT SL of 121.

For the day, 
intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5120 / 5150 / 5180 levels. At the same time, 5050 / 5020 / 4980 will act as major intraday support levels.
 
 
  

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