Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern. Indian
markets witnessed a roller coaster ride. Markets kicked off trade with strong
sentiments, with NIFTY registering a Gap Up Opening of almost 30 points, but
saw significant dips at regular intervals on global and domestic concerns over
growth. Though the market mood has been upbeat in the last few trading
sessions, caution remains. Markets began trade with enthusiasm on back of
encouraging cues from Asia and soon NIFTY rose to its intraday high of 5136.95.
However, traders’ sentiments witnessed a number of fluctuations and market fell
in the negative terrain a couple of times. A slight relief in the inflation
numbers for the week ended September 24 did not have much impact on markets.
Primary articles inflation came in at 10.6% vs 10.84%, week-on-week, while food
articles inflation eased to 9.32% vs 9.41%. Fuel group inflation, however,
increased to 15.1% vs 14.69%, WoW. A weak opening for European markets further
dampened sentiments, as the NIFTY chart continued making crests & troughs.
NIFTY marked a low of 5067.65 for the day, almost 70 points down from the day’s
high, but it did not breach the crucial intraday support of 5050. Sector-wise,
banks were the obvious heroes, they rallied on the back of expectations that
the RBI may take a pause and not hike rates this month. Indices for IT and
realty also gained marginally. On the downside, indices for auto and capital
goods lost over 1% each. Finally, for the day NIFTY managed to close at 5077.85
closer to the day’s low level.
Technically, NIFTY took a Strong
support of 4720 once again and bounced back from that. As mentioned earlier too
that the so-called level of 4800 got
achieved by NIFTY; still it is in the down trend, as there is more Bad News in
the offing in terms of International Economic Uncertainties, hence traders
and investors should be ready for the more down side ahead. The 20-Days EMA and
50-Days SMA are in a Negative Crossover, hence, indicating more selling
pressure to creep in. Also a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple
Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days
EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of
4960.23 and 5034.70, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below
its 200-Days SMA of 5459.66. Right now, the level of 5200 is playing a role of
a stiff resistance level for NIFTY on the closing basis, whereas the level of 4720
will be acting as a Good Support Level in the coming sessions. A Fibonnaci
Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th
November, 2010) to the recent 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th
August, 2011), which represents the level of 5100 (Level of 61.80%) as the
first important resistance level to be crossed on the Closing Basis for the
NIFTY to enter in a Comfortable Zone for traders. Yesterday, NIFTY crossed this
level by marking a high of 5136.95 for the day, but it closed below it at 5077.85.
It has got reverted from this level for the thrice and crossed it again for the
fourth time. Still extreme uncertainties lie in the Markets although not in
short term but in long term period. Hence, still the traders and investors
should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take
the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.
5170 on the upper side and 4720
on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of
September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same
level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further
direction of the market in the short term. 5170 is the level again to be
watched, if NIFTY crosses it and sustains above it successfully this time, it
may touch the level of 5350 this time.
On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its Producer
Price Index, Consumer Price Index, Foreign Exchange Reserves and M2 Money
Supply for the month of September. Trade Balance for the month of August and
Consumer Price Index for the month of September will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be
coming out with Business Inventories for the month of August, Retail Sales,
Import Price Index, Export Price Index for the month of September and
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for the month of October. INDIA will be coming out with its Monthly
Inflation Numbers for the month of September.
Traders are suggested to trade
cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas,
Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give
better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns
thereafter.
Q2 FY11 Results Season is running
all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific
actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be
announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. BALAJITELE, GATEWAYDISTRI, GEOJITPNB, HEIDELBERG, INFOMEDIA 18 and RIIL will be announcing their Results in
INDIA.
NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA
(Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 4971.43
and 5026.62, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its
200-Days SMA of 5454.99. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD
(Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) have reverted from the oversold
zone, but still with every sell off in the markets they are heading towards
their oversold zone.
What does Indicators Say?
2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 45.52 and 48.51, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.
3. +DI: 29.42, -DI: 23.25, ADX: 16.61: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.
4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of these indicators are 5454.99, 5026.62 and 4971.43.
Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (13th October,
2011) Trading Session:
Net Buying of Rs. 670.08 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 327.80 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.
Net Selling of Rs. 760.45 Crore and of Rs. 720.61 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory
Trades and Others Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 37.84 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds Segment.
In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 231.14 Crore, of Rs. 143.78 Crore and of Rs. 2.05 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures,
Index Options and Stock Options, respectively,
while, Net Selling of Rs. 49.18 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures.
NIFTY OCT FUTURE ended at a Discount of 3.80
Points to the Spot NIFTY.
A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:
TATASTEEL: Can touch the levels of 463/467, if crosses the level of 455.
GRASIM: Can dip to the levels of 2300/2290, if breaches the level
of 2325.
Pre Market Calls:
GITANJALI: Sell ONLY IF ITS TRADES BELOW 372 for the TARGETS of 365/360, with the STRICT SL of 376.
For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5120 / 5150 / 5180 levels. At the same time, 5050 / 5020 / 4980 will act as major intraday support levels.
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