Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 02nd November 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Small Black Candlestick Pattern. The market started trade on negative note; NIFTY witnessed a Gap Down Opening of almost 50 points, but immediately started covering and marked an intraday high of 5310.85. Tracking weak Global Cues and witnessing continuous selling pressure dragged NIFTY again below the levels of 5300 and it got hammered brutally by marking a low of 5238.30 for the day, breaching an important support of 5250. Prime Minister George Papandreou’s shock decision to call a referendum on Greece’s bailout drew veiled threats from Germany and hammered markets edgy over the euro zone crisis. A very weak opening of European Markets also aided the continuous selling pressure in gaining strength. Equities declined for the second consecutive day, tracking a weak global trend and sustained selling by funds and retail investors in capital goods, FMCG, metal and banking stocks. A bit of short covering was witnessed in the markets in last half an hour of trade which also helped NIFTY to close above the levels of 5250 at 5257.95.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5127.06 and 5015.19, respectively on closing basis. Both the averages have given a Positive Crossover, as the 20-Days EMA has crossed the 50-Days SMA from downside. Right now, 20-Days EMA is also acting as a Good Support Level for NIFTY. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5404.29. After crossing the consolidation zone of 5170 on the higher side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY successfully crossed the level of 5170 on the approval of European Debt Deal and is now facing the resistance of 5400 on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). NIFTY has crossed the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97, but is again trading below the 50.00% level of 5338.27. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Deal. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

As predicted earlier that 5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term. 5170 is the level again to be watched, if NIFTY crosses it and sustains above it successfully this time, it may touch the level of 5350 this time. NIFTY has crossed this level due to the approval of European Debt Deal and also made a high of 5399.70.

On the Economic Front, UK will be coming out with its Halifax House Prices and PMI Construction for the month of October. Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change for the month of October will be announced in GERMANY. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be announcing the Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing for the month of October. MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change for the month of October and Fed Interest Rate Decision will be coming out in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. ALBK, ANDHRABANK, HINDUSTAN MOTORS, HINDUSTAN ORG, NAVNEET, TRENT and TUBE INVEST will be announcing their Results in INDIA. MASTERCARD INC, COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORP, TIME WARNER INC and KRAFT FOODS INC will be announcing their Q3 FY11 Results in US.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5127.06 and 5015.19, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5404.29. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their overbought zone after being reverted from the oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                   

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 58.90 and 58.70, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 129.59 and 78.26, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 34.21, -DI: 21.01, ADX: 13.73: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, but above the levels of 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5404.29, 5015.19 and 5127.06, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Tuesday’s (01st November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 20.66 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 555.39 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 144.85 Crore and of Rs. 1187.82 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1002.98 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 1404.98 Crore and of Rs. 16.60 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Options, respectively, while, Net Selling of Rs. 497.98 Crore and of Rs. 368.21 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Futures, respectively.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 33.45 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

ACC:                Can dip to the levels of 1170/1160, if breaches the level of 1184.
HCLTECH:         Can dip to the levels of 420/418, if breaches the level of 430.

PNB:                Can touch the levels of 1030/1040, if crosses the level of 1015.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5280 / 5320 / 5350 levels. At the same time, 5220 / 5180 / 5150 will act as major intraday support levels.   

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