Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 03rd November 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern, with a longer upper shadow but the closing level could not successfully cross the previous day’s closing level. The market started trade on negative note near day’s lows, triggered by lower Asian markets. NIFTY had a Gap Down Opening of almost 40 points and within moments after opening it marked its intraday low of 5204.95. However, markets shaved off early losses as the Asian markets staged a valiant recovery. The market continued to gain ground at a snail’s pace throughout the morning session. NIFTY made intraday high during the first hour of the afternoon session of 5,300.10 but could not trade above the level of 5300 for long. However, the market reversed its gains in the late afternoon trade and fell again into the negative territory on the back of significant selling pressure. A positive opening of the European markets also could not help the course of the markets. 5300 acted as a good resistance NIFTY and hence it reverted. More or less NIFTY ended flat for the day at the level of 5258.45, registering another closing above the levels of 5250.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5139.57 and 5021.48, respectively on closing basis. Both the averages have given a Positive Crossover, as the 20-Days EMA has crossed the 50-Days SMA from downside. Right now, 20-Days EMA is also acting as a Good Support Level for NIFTY. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5401.27. After crossing the consolidation zone of 5170 on the higher side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY successfully crossed the level of 5170 on the approval of European Debt Deal and is now facing the resistance of 5400 on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). NIFTY has crossed the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97, but is again trading below the 50.00% level of 5338.27. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Deal. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

As predicted earlier that 5170 on the upper side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY is trading in this range since the Starting of September series. It is making lower lows but is facing resistance at the same level again and again. Breakout on the either side will be deciding the further direction of the market in the short term. 5170 is the level again to be watched, if NIFTY crosses it and sustains above it successfully this time, it may touch the level of 5350 this time. NIFTY has crossed this level due to the approval of European Debt Deal and also made a high of 5399.70.

On the Economic Front, UK will be coming out with its Purchasing Manager Index Services for the month of October. ECB Interest Rate Decision will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be announcing its Factory Orders for the month of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing for the month of October, Nonfarm Productivity, Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. ASHOKLEY, GUJARAT GAS, JSL, JUBLFOOD, KESORAM INDS, MANAPPURAM FINANCE, SAIL, SUNTV, TATA TELESERVICES, TVSMOTOR, WELCORP and WHIRLPOOL will be announcing their Results in INDIA. BNP PARIBAS SA and SANOFI SA will be announcing their Q3 FY11 Results in FRANCE. HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG, ADIDAS AG, CONTINENTAL AG and BMW AG will be announcing their Q3 FY11 Results in GERMANY. STARBUCKS CORP will be announcing its Q4 FY11 Results in US.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5139.57 and 5021.48, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5401.27. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their overbought zone after being reverted from the oversold zone.


What does Indicators Say?
                    

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 58.92 and 58.75, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 125.08 and 87.62, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 31.94, -DI: 21.94, ADX: 18.34: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, but above the levels of 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5401.27, 5021.48 and 5139.57, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (02nd November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 7.78 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 649.89 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 78.67 Crore and of Rs. 577.56 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 100.84 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 266.69 Crore, of Rs. 16.36 Crore, of Rs. 363.48 Crore and of Rs. 3.35 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 21.75 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BAJAJ-AUTO:   Can touch the levels of 1750/1760, if crosses the level of 1725.
RANBAXY:        Can touch the levels of 83.80/84.50, if crosses the level of 82.30.
RCOM:              Can touch the levels of 83.80/84.50, if crosses the level of 82.30.
SAIL:                Can touch the levels of 115/116, if crosses the level of 113.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5280 / 5320 / 5350 levels. At the same time, 5220 / 5180 / 5150 will act as major intraday support levels.   



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