Nifty Outlook for 04th November 2011

Yesterday, NIFTY made a White Candlestick Pattern, with a longer lower shadow and closed almost at the high of the day. The market started trade on negative note near day’s lows, triggered by negative global cues. NIFTY had an opening in the negative terrain with 20 points down. After opening NIFTY marked a low of 5201.85 in the morning session, but did not breach the crucial support of 5200. After touching the crucial support level, NIFTY reverted sharply and entered the green terrain. However, market gained some comfort as closing bell neared on hopes of a conclusive decision on the global economic turmoil from the G20 summit. A recovery in European shares also eased concerns of an imminent Greek default, thus, pushing benchmarks in the green zone. NIFTY marked a high of 5281.60, but was not able to touch the level of 5300 too. More or less NIFTY ended near to the day’s high at the level of 5265.75, again closing above the levels of 5250.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5151.59 and 5029.88, respectively on closing basis. Both the averages have given a Positive Crossover, as the 20-Days EMA has crossed the 50-Days SMA from downside. Right now, 20-Days EMA is also acting as a Good Support Level for NIFTY. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5398.84. After crossing the consolidation zone of 5170 on the higher side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY successfully crossed the level of 5170 on the approval of European Debt Deal and is now facing the resistance of 5400 on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08^th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26^th August, 2011). NIFTY has crossed the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97, but is again trading below the 50.00% level of 5338.27. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Deal. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Factory Orders for the month of September and Purchasing Manager Index Services for the month of October. Producer price Index for the month of September and Purchasing Manager Index Services for the month of October will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be coming out with Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Payrolls for the month of October. 

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. APOLLOHOSP, BHARTIARTL, GSKCONS, GSKPHARMA, HCL INFOSYSTEMS, MARICO, NCC, NESTLE INDIA, ONGC and TVTODAY will be announcing their Results in INDIA. iGATE CORP will be announcing its Q3 FY11 Results in US.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5151.59 and 5029.88, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5398.84. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their overbought zone after being reverted from the oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?

                     

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 59.30 and 58.86, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 120.82 and 94.26, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 30.13, -DI: 20.92, ADX: 18.32: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, but above the levels of 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5401.27, 5021.48 and 5139.57, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Thursday’s (03^rd November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 15.45 Crore in Cash while Net Selling of Rs. 452.17 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Thursday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 75.66 Crore, of Rs. 25.89 Crore and of Rs. 548.34 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds, Proprietory Trades and Others Segment, respectively.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 434.47 Crore and of Rs. 65.15 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, and Stock Futures, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 25.99 Crore and of Rs. 21.45 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Options, respectively.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 30.10 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

ACC:                Can touch the levels of 1235/1245, if crosses the level of 1210.

BHEL:               Can touch the levels of 337/340, if crosses the level of 330.

DLF:                 Can touch the levels of 250/251, if crosses the level of 245.

SBIN:                Can touch the levels of 1960/1970, if crosses the level of 1940.


Pre Market Calls:


INDHOTEL: Buy ONLY IF ITS TRADES ABOVE 71.60 for the TARGETS of 73/73.40, with the STRICT SL of 70.60.


JSWSTEEL: Buy IN THE RANGE OF 672-673 for the TARGETS of 685/690, with the STRICT SL of 662.


CENTURYTEX: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 332 for the TARGETS of 338/342, with the STRICT SL of 328.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5280 / 5320 / 5350 levels. At the same time, 5220 / 5180 / 5150 will act as major intraday support levels.