Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 09th November 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Black Doji Candlestick Pattern. After a long weekend, market opened on a positive note and touched the intraday high of 5304.25 soon. NIFTY failed to hold on to the early gains and slipped into the negative terrain due to mild selling mainly in realty, healthcare, banking, IT and tech counters. Since then, the gauges kept hitting ground and finally registered fresh intraday lows around noon session. NIFTY marked an intraday low of 5252.00, but did not breach the level of 5250. However, later following a rise in the European markets, the Indian equities reversed the losses and traded range-bound thereafter and flirted with the level of 5300. However, the benchmarks recovered in the last hour of trading almost 25 points from the day’s low and closed at 5289.35 for the day. REALTY & INFRA was the sectors which was the biggest loser for the day.  

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5176.14 and 5044.40, respectively on closing basis. Both the averages have given a Positive Crossover, as the 20-Days EMA has crossed the 50-Days SMA from downside. Right now, 20-Days EMA is also acting as a Good Support Level for NIFTY. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5395.16. After crossing the consolidation zone of 5170 on the higher side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY successfully crossed the level of 5170 on the approval of European Debt Deal and is now facing the resistance of 5400 on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). NIFTY has crossed the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97, but is again trading below the 50.00% level of 5338.27. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Deal. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from Greece all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Core Machinery Orders for the month of September, Money Supply M2+CD, Eco Watchers Survey: Current and Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook for the month of October. Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Consumer Price Index and FDI – Foreign Direct Investment for the month of October will be announced in CHINA. UK will be announcing its Trade Balance; non-EU, Goods Trade Balance for the month of September and BRC Shop Price Index for the month of October. MBA Mortgage Applications and Wholesale Inventories for the month of November will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. ANSAL PROPERTIES, APOLLOTYRE, BHARATFORG, BHUSANSTL, BOMDYEING, CESC, EICHERMOT, GLENMARK, GMRINFRA, HINDOILEXP, IOC, JAICORP, JSWENERGY, LUPIN, MOSERBAER, NEYVELILIG, PFC, PGHH, PTCINDIA, RANBAXY, SBIN, SRTRANSFIN, SUNDARAM FAST, TNPL, TATACOMM, TRIGYN TECH and VOLTAS will be announcing their Results in INDIA. GENERLA MOTORS CO and CISCO SYSTEMS INC will be announcing its Q3 FY11 Results and Q1 FY11 Results, respectively in US.  

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5176.14 and 5044.40, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5395.16. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their overbought zone after being reverted from the oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                       

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 60.56 and 59.42, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 128.65 and 106.75, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 30.61, -DI: 19.44, ADX: 18.93: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, but above the levels of 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5395.16, 5044.40 and 5176.14, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Tuesday’s (08th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 456.28 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 201.08 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 233.51 Crore and of Rs. 562.72 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Segment, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 791.25 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 256.49 Crore, of Rs. 152.58 Crore and of Rs. 9.87 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 217.85 Crore was witnessed in Stock Futures.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 26.20 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

CAIRN:              Can touch the levels of 328/330, if crosses the level of 322.
RCOM:              Can touch the levels of 89.70/90.00, if crosses the level of 87.40.
RPOWER:          Can touch the levels of 106/108, if crosses the level of 104.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5320 / 5350 / 5380 levels. At the same time, 5250 / 5220 / 5180 will act as major intraday support levels.   



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