Thursday, November 10, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 11th November 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Long Black Candlestick Pattern. Equities dropped sharply, as investors sold off their paper wealth in banking, realty, metal, oil & gas and PSU counters. NIFTY marked a positive opening of almost 20 points, following global cues. However, profit booking emerged in shares from banking sector during late morning session after Moody's Investor Service downgraded its outlook for India's banking system to "negative" from "stable". Moreover, NIFTY broke out of narrow range of 5320 and 5280 on the lower side as selling intensified in State Bank of India (SBI) after it reported results for quarter ended September. A weak trend in the European markets as Italian-German bond yield spreads widened to 500 basis points triggered further selling, pushing the bourses off the cliff in the last trading hour. NIFTY dipped almost 100 points from the day’s high; it marked a low of 5211.75, again not breaching the crucial support of 5200. BANKING & FINANCE, METALS and AUTO were the sectors which dragged the market lower and lower for the day. For the day, NIFTY closed at 5221.05.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5180.41 and 5051.04, respectively on closing basis. Both the averages have given a Positive Crossover, as the 20-Days EMA has crossed the 50-Days SMA from downside. Right now, 20-Days EMA is also acting as a Good Support Level for NIFTY. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5392.65. After crossing the consolidation zone of 5170 on the higher side and 4720 on the lower side, NIFTY successfully crossed the level of 5170 on the approval of European Debt Deal and is now facing the resistance of 5400 on the closing basis. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). NIFTY has crossed the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97, but is again trading below the 50.00% level of 5338.27. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Deal. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from Greece all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, CHINA will be coming out with its M2 Money Supply for the month of October. UK will be announcing its Producer Price Index – Output and Producer Price Index – Input for the month of October. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for the month of November will be announced in US. INDIA will be coming out with its IIP Data (Index of Industrial Production) for the month of September.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. ADANIPOWER, ANANTRAJ, BRITANNIAIND, DREDGINGCORP, EDUCOMP, FINANTECH, GESHIP, HDIL, JETAIRWAYS, JINDALSAW, LITL, MUNDRAPORT, PENTAMEDIA GRAPHICS, PIPAVAV DEFENCE, REIAGRO, RELCAPITAL, RENUKA, SPICEJET, SRF, TNPL and TATACHEM will be announcing their Results in INDIA.

NIFTY has crossed its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5180.41 and 5051.04, respectively on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5392.65. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their overbought zone after being reverted from the oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                        

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 54.93 and 58.52, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 131.50 and 111.70, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 28.20, -DI: 20.91, ADX: 18.64: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, but above the levels of 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5392.65, 5051.04 and 5180.41, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (09th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 559.04 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 11.27 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 101.94 Crore and of Rs. 1132.32 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1033.17 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 535.29 Crore and of Rs. 2.11 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 250.82 Crore and of Rs. 275.29 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Futures, respectively.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 16.05 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

ACC:                Can dip to the levels of 1190/1180, if breaches the level of 1205.
BPCL:               Can dip to the levels of 558/555, if breaches the level of 569.
DLF:                 Can dip to the levels of 228/226, if breaches the level of 233.
ICICIBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 854/845, if breaches the level of 860.
IDFC:                Can dip to the levels of 119/118, if breaches the level of 122.
SBIN:                Can dip to the levels of 1830/1820, if breaches the level of 1860.
STER:               Can dip to the levels of 116/115, if breaches the level of 119.
TATASTEEL:     Can dip to the levels of 438/435, if breaches the level of 445.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5250 / 5280 / 5320 levels. At the same time, 5180 / 5150 / 5120 will act as major intraday support levels.   







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