Monday, November 14, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 15th November 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY made a Long Black Candlestick Pattern; the market opened on a strong footing, mirroring firm Asian cues and Friday’s positive closing on Wall Street. NIFTY posted a Gap Up Opening of almost 50 points. However, the benchmarks witnessed a bout of volatility as traders oscillated between outrageous optimism and rampant pessimism. NIFTY came off the day’s high gradually till the announcement of Monthly Inflation for the month of October, but did not breach the level of 5200. Market entered into positive zone after slipping into the red for a short while in mid-afternoon trade. After the announcement of Monthly Inflation Data, NIFTY again tried to bounce back to the day’s high of 5228.90 from the level of 5200, but could not cross the day’s high again. Weakness in Europe, soaring Inflation for the month of October (above 9%) made investors edgy, sparking a sell off and pushing NIFTY below for the day. NIFTY marked a low of 5140.55 for the day. Despite pockets of buying support emerging at various stages during the day, none of them were strong enough to push up the market in positive terrain at close. Equities declined sharply, as nervous investors sold a wild swath of REALTY & INFRA, AUTO, POWER and METAL stocks. However, for the day NIFTY ended at 5148.35.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. NIFTY has crossed its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5176.36 on closing basis. Both the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA have given a Positive Crossover, as the short term moving average has crossed the longer term average. Yesterday too, NIFTY ended below its 20-Days EMA, which was till now acting as a Good Support Level for NIFTY. Also the level of 5200 which was still acting as a Good Support Level for NIFTY, acted as a Strong Resistance for it yesterday again. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5387.22. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). NIFTY has crossed the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97, but is again trading below the 50.00% level of 5338.27. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Deal. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from Greece and Italy all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, GERMANY will be coming out with its Q3 Gross Domestic Product, ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment and ZEW Survey – Current Situation for the month of November. DCLG House Price Index for the month of September, Retail Price Index, Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index for the month of October will be announced in UK. EURPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with its Trade Balance for the month of September, Q3 Gross Domestic Product and ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment for the month of November. Business Inventories for the month of September, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales for the month of October and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for the month of November will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced domestically and internationally tomorrow. MPS and TECHM will be announcing their Results in INDIA. DELL INC will be announcing its Results in US.

NIFTY closed below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of 5176.36 yesterday, but is trading above its 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5065.64 on closing basis. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5387.22. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are moving towards their overbought zone after being reverted from the oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                          

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 49.54 and 55.53, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 125.40 and 117.81, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 27.04, -DI: 23.24, ADX: 16.82: The Positive Directional Index has gained strength over the Negative Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA, but above the levels of 50-Days SMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5387.22, 5065.64 and 5176.36, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (14th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Buying of Rs. 321.62 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 341.49 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 174.17 Crore and of Rs. 535.71 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1883.67 Crore was witnessed in Others Trades.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 89.00 Crore, of Rs. 89.89 Crore and of Rs. 1.22 Crore was witnessed in Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 521.60 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 7.50 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

BHARTIARTL:    Can touch the levels of 410/412, if crosses the level of 406.
DRREDDY:        Can touch the levels of 1670/1680, if crosses the level of 1650.

M&M:               Can dip to the levels of 775/770, if breaches the level of 790.
TATAMOTORS:  Can dip to the levels of 173/171, if breaches the level of 177.

Pre Market Calls:

TITAN: Sell ONLY IF IT TRADES BELOW 210 for the TARGETS of 205/202, with the STRICT SL of 212.70.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5180 / 5220 / 5250 levels. At the same time, 5120 / 5080 / 5050 will act as major intraday support levels.    



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