Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 16th November 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY again made a Long Black Candlestick Pattern. Markets witnessed significant losses as correction in European peers smashed investor buying sentiments. NIFTY witnessed a muted opening in the negative terrain and opened with a loss of almost 15-20 points. The market extended its last session’s losses at the opening bell itself. Later, though its managed to reverse direction and enter positive terrain during early trade. NIFTY marked a high of 5158.75 for the day. But it turned from that level and kept fluctuating between the two terrains till late afternoon, was trading in a very tight range of just 15-20 points. Thereafter, with global markets further worsening, NIFTY broke the range-bound session and fell deep in red, in the last hour of trade. It marked a low of 5052.85 for the day, which was almost 100 points down from the day’s high level. REALTY & INFRA Sector was the biggest dud, stocks witnessed deep cuts ranging from 5%-12%. Other than this, CAPITAL GOODS, POWER and BANKING & FINANCE were the sectors which rag down the markets. Although NIFTY was cushioned by the level of 5050, the sudden fall of 100 points created panic in investors and traders, due to which a brutal sell off was witnessed in the Mid Cap Stocks. For the day NIFTY ended at 5068.50, just above the crucial support level of 5050.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Both the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA have given a Positive Crossover, as the short term moving average has crossed the longer term average. Yesterday too, NIFTY ended below its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA, after breaching the important support of 20-Days EMA, 50-Days SMA was acting as another Good Support level. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5384.08. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). Yesterday, NIFTY slipped below the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97 in intraday trading by making a low of 5052.85 and also closed much below it at 5068.50. Breaching of this level signals that NIFTY can again witness a dip to the level of 5000/4950. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Crisis. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from PIIGS Countries all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be announcing its Interest Rate Decision in JAPAN.  K will be coming out with its ILO Unemployment Rate, Average Earnings including and excluding bonus for the month of September, Claimant Count Rate for the month of October and Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report. Consumer Price Index for the month of October will be announced by EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION. US will be announcing MBA Mortgage Applications, Total Net NIC Flows and Net Long-Term TIC Flows for the month of September, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and Consumer Price Index for the month of October and NAHB Housing Market Index for the month of November.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

Q2 FY11 Results Season is running all over the Financial World. Hence, more of Sector Specific and Stock Specific actions will be witnessed. Here is a quick look at some important results to be announced internationally tomorrow. INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG will be announcing its Results in GERMANY.  

NIFTY is once again trading below its 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) of 5166.09 and 5166.09, respectively. Yesterday too NIFTY closed below its 50-Days SMA of 5068.62. 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are again heading towards their oversold zone after being reverted from the overbought zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                           

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 44.13 and 53.25, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 103.75 and 114.99, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 24.89, -DI: 27.99, ADX: 16.04: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5384.08, 5068.62 and 5166.09, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Tuesday’s (15th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 409.77 Crore in Cash and of Rs. 692.12 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Tuesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 1297.54 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 180.04  and Rs. 776.00 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Trades, respectively.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 924.48 Crore, of Rs. 142.42 Crore and of Rs. 3.27 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 378.04 Crore was witnessed in Index Options.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 9.70 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

CIPLA:              Can touch the levels of 313/316, if crosses the level of 307.

AMBUJACEM:    Can dip to the levels of 157/156, if breaches the level of 160.
AXISBANK:        Can dip to the levels of 985/975, if breaches the level of 1005.
DLF:                 Can dip to the levels of 203/200, if breaches the level of 207.
JPASSOCIAT:    Can dip to the levels of 68/67.60, if breaches the level of 69.80.
M&M:               Can dip to the levels of 740/735, if breaches the level of 760.
PNB:                Can dip to the levels of 900/892, if breaches the level of 918.
STER:               Can dip to the levels of 110/108, if breaches the level of 113.
TATASTEEL:     Can dip to the levels of 391/385, if breaches the level of 399.

Pre Market Calls:

ABIRLANUVO: Sell ONLY IF IT TRADES BELOW 887 for the TARGETS of 870/865, with the STRICT SL of 898.

EXIDEIND: Sell ONLY IF IT TRADES BELOW 121 for the TARGETS of 118/116, with the STRICT SL of 122.60.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5080 / 5120 / 5150 levels. At the same time, 5020 / 4980 / 4950 will act as major intraday support levels.    





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