Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Nifty Outlook for 17th November 2011



Yesterday, NIFTY again made a Black Candlestick Pattern, with a longer lower shadow. It means NIFTY dipped much lower in the intraday trading but closed much above that low. NIFTY kick-started trade on a negative note tracking mixed Asian markets, and failed to make it to the positive terrain throughout the trading session. It marked a negative opening with almost 20 points down. It was a roller coaster ride for the market. NIFTY tried to maintain above the level of 5000 till the latter half of the trading session and witnessed a bounce back to the levels of 5060. The last hour of trading session was extremely volatile and kept away the traders from participating into the extreme swings. NIFTY again reverted sharply from the level of 5060 and made a low of 4989.50, breaching the crucial physiological level of 5000. In the last thirty minutes it again bounced back shrply and marked a high of 5065.20 for the day. The market, however, registered a significant upmove during the penultimate hour of trade when reports came out that the Union Cabinet has approved foreign direct investment of up to 26% in the pension sector. The upmove was further aided by the fact that the European markets recovered from their initial losses, taking NIFTY to the intraday high. Bulls staged a valiant fightback at Dalal Street as NIFTY recovered over 75 points in the last hour of trade. However, the fightback was not strong enough markets ended the day in negative territory for fifth consecutive day. CAPITAL GOODS, POWER and OIL & GAS were the sectors which drag down the markets. For the day NIFTY ended at 5030.45, below the crucial level of 5050.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Both the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA have given a Positive Crossover, as the short term moving average has crossed the longer term average. Yesterday too, NIFTY ended below its 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA, after breaching the important support of 20-Days EMA, 50-Days SMA was acting as another Good Support level. It is trading much below its 200-Days SMA of 5380.52. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08th November, 2010) to the 18-Months Low marked 4720.00 by NIFTY (26th August, 2011). Yesterday, NIFTY slipped below the level of 61.80% level of 5101.97 in intraday trading by making a low of 4989.50 and also closed much below it at 5030.45. Breaching of this level signals that NIFTY can again witness a dip to the level of 5000/4950. And if these levels are achieved by NIFTY on closing basis, it may also further dip to the level of 4800. Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Crisis. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from PIIGS Countries all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. However, Traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Machine Tool Orders for the month of October and also Bank of Japan will be announcing its Monthly Economic Survey. Retail Sales and Nationwide Consumer Confidence for the month of October will be announced in UK. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with Construction Output for the month of September. Building Permits and Housing Starts for the month of October, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for the month of November will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is once again trading below all its moving averages of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 5153.17, 5069.21 and 5380.52, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) are again heading towards their oversold zone after being reverted from the overbought zone.

What does Indicators Say?
                            

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 41.79 and 50.96, respectively, showing a short term positive crossover.

2. MACD (26 Days 12 Days): Their Values are 78.73 and 107.74, respectively. A short term positive crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 23.39, -DI: 31.12, ADX: 15.90: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is below 20, indicates that the market has entered in to the trading range right now.

4. SMA (200 Days)SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5380.52, 5069.21 and 5153.17, respectively.

Some Trading Stats of the Wednesday’s (16th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 488.89 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 284.10 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Wednesday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 1215.90 Crore was witnessed in Proprietory Trades, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 42.97 Crore and of Rs. 1865.06 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Others Trades, respectively.

In F&O Segment Net Selling of Rs. 827.57 Crore and of Rs. 126.09 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, and Stock Futures, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 1228.44 Crore and of Rs. 9.32 Crore was witnessed in Index Options and Stock Options, respectively.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium 14.45 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1025/1035, if crosses the level of 1005.
ICICIBANK:        Can touch the levels of 805/815, if crosses the level of 790.
JINDALSTEL:     Can touch the levels of 563/570, if crosses the level of 552.

GRASIM:            Can dip to the levels of 2350/2340, if breaches the level of 2385.
JPASSOCIAT:    Can dip to the levels of 65.80/65, if breaches the level of 66.80.
PNB:                Can dip to the levels of 877/870, if breaches the level of 895.

Pre Market Calls:

TITAN: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 212 for the TARGETS of 217/218, with the STRICT SL of 209.30.

WELCORP: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 85.30 for the TARGETS of 88/90, with the STRICT SL of 84.10.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 5050 / 5080 / 5120 levels. At the same time, 4980 / 4950 / 4920 will act as major intraday support levels.    


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