Nifty Outlook for 28th November 2011

On Friday, NIFTY made a Black Candlestick Pattern, with a longer upper shadow. Markets closed well below their opening level and also below the last day’s close. NIFTY marked a negative opening with almost 25 points down. Markets slipped early and ended with significant losses tracking worries over the euro zone debt crisis and weakening outlook for the global economy. Nevertheless, the recovery was short lived as the gauges slipped back in red to trade range-bound till late afternoon session. Thereafter, with European markets losing ground for the ninth time in 10 sessions, the Indian equities slipped sharply towards important support levels. But at the end of the day, a selling pressure again creped in and NIFTY dipped to the intraday lows of 4693.10. CAPITAL GOODS and REALTY & INFRA were the top gainers for the day, whereas, IT and OIL & GAS Sectors were the top losers for the day. For the day NIFTY ended at 4710.05.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Again a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since last two days, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY is once again trading much below its 20-Days EMA, 50-Days SMA and 200-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08^th November, 2010) to the 20-Months Low marked 4639.10 by NIFTY (24^th November, 2011). Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Crisis. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from PIIGS Countries all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4720, which was acting as a Strong Support level since the month of August. Now, the level of 5039.54 (61.80% Level of Retracement) is acting as a crucial resistance, whereas, the level of 5650 is acting as a good support level on the closing basis for NIFTY. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Unemployment Rate, Overall Household Spending, Retail Trade and Large Retailer’s Sales for the month of October. Consumer Price Index for the month of November and Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for the month of December will be announced in GERMANY. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with M3 Money Supply for the month of October. New Home Sales for the month of October will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading much below all its moving averages of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 4868.30, 5033.18 and 5355.11, respectively. The 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) has already entered its Oversold zone and 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) too is trading in the same zone.

What does Indicators Say?

                          

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 30.96 and 35.76, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 143.77 and 38.59, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 12.76, -DI: 36.45, ADX: 25.76: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market's trend is gaining strength.

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5355.11, 5033.18 and 4868.30, respectively. 

Some Trading Stats of the Friday’s (25^th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 805.00 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 349.65 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Friday’s Trading Session.

Net Buying of Rs. 123.00 Crore and of Rs. 3231.11 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 3447.85 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 498.57 Crore, of Rs. 51.96 Crore and of Rs. 31.39 Crore was witnessed in Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively, whereas, Net Selling of Rs. 232.27 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures.

NIFTY NOV FUTURE ended at a Premium of 0.09 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

LT:                   Can touch the levels of 1295/1305, if touches the level of 1270.

HEROMOTOCO: Can dip to the levels of 2020/2010, if touches the level of 2035

Pre Market Calls:

ABB: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 615 for the TARGETS of 628/635, with the STRICT SL of 607.

JETAIRWAYS: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 280 for the TARGETS of 288/290, with the STRICT SL of 276.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4750 / 4780 / 4820 levels. At the same time, 4680 / 4650 / 4620 will act as major intraday support levels.