Nifty Outlook for 29th November 2011

Yesterday, NIFTY made a Long White Candlestick Pattern, showing that the markets advanced significantly from open to close during the day under strong buying pressure and buyers were aggressive. Equities bounced back from a two- year low, reflecting positive global equities amid growing hopes that euro zone leaders would unveil fresh measures to resolve the two-year-old debt crisis. NIFTY registered a robust Gap Up Opening of almost 60 points. After dashing out at start, the markets continued pace, though sprinting in a range for quite some time during early afternoon trade, but managed to gain vigor back. Strong Asian cues coupled with a positive opening across European peers and buying from various pockets pushed the markets above their psychological barriers. NIFTY stormed past 4,800 levels. For the day NIFTY marked an intraday low of 4766.40, while a high of 4859.10. METAL, OIL & GAS, BANKING & FINANCE and PSU Sectors were the top gainers for the day. For the day NIFTY ended at 4851.30.

Technically, a Negative Crossover between 200-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 50-Days SMA is still intact. Again a Negative Crossover between the 50-Days SMA and 20-Days EMA has developed since last two days, which signals selling pressure to creep in coming trading sessions. NIFTY is once again trading much below its 20-Days EMA, 50-Days SMA and 200-Days SMA. A Fibonnaci Retracement Level is being drawn from the High of 6338.50 (08^th November, 2010) to the 20-Months Low marked 4639.10 by NIFTY (24^th November, 2011). Still the markets all over the Globe are doubtful about the clarity of the European Debt Crisis. A positive action is being eagerly awaited from PIIGS Countries all around the Globe. Hence, still the traders and investors should wait for fruitful results ahead. With deteriorating International Economic Scenario NIFTY even breached its important support level of 4720, which was acting as a Strong Support level since the month of August. Now, the level of 5039.54 (61.80% Level of Retracement) is acting as a crucial resistance, whereas, the level of 5650 is acting as a good support level on the closing basis for NIFTY. Investors are suggested to avoid the markets to invest at this time; however, traders are suggested to take the advantage of Swing Trading, which will appear many times in between.   

On the Economic Front, JAPAN will be coming out with its Industrial Production for the month of October and Nomura / JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index for the month of November. Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals, Net Lending to Individuals, M4 Money Supply for the month of October and Nationwide Housing Prices for the month of November will be announced in UK. EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION will be coming out with Industrial Confidence, Economic Confidence and Consumer Confidence for the month of November. S&P / Case – Shiller Home Price Indices, Housing Price Index for the month of September and Consumer Confidence for the month of November will be announced in US.

Traders are suggested to trade cautiously by following Strict Stop Losses and Booking Fast Profits, whereas, Investors are suggested to stay from the markets right now, as market will give better chances ahead for Bottom Fishing and earning handsome returns thereafter.

NIFTY is trading much below all its moving averages of 20-Days EMA (Exponential Moving Average), 50-Days SMA (Simple Moving Average) and 200-Days SMA of 4868.30, 5033.18 and 5355.11, respectively. Due to Gap Up Opening and closing with strong gains, the 14-Days RSI (Relative Strength Index) has again reverted from its Oversold zone but the 26-Days MACD (Moving Average Convergence and Divergence) is still trading in the oversold zone.

What does Indicators Say?

                           

1. RSI (14 Days & 9 Days): The values are 41.82 and 36.98, respectively. The indicator is moving towards oversold zone from the overbought zone. 

2. MACD (26 Days & 12 Days): Their Values are 167.43 and 64.35, respectively. A short term negative crossover is indicated by both the Moving Averages.

3. +DI: 17.67, -DI: 32.78, ADX: 25.99: The Negative Directional Index has gained strength over the Positive Directional Index and also the Average Directional Index is above 20, indicates that the market's trend is gaining strength.

4. SMA (200 Days), SMA (50 Days) & EMA (20 Days): NIFTY is trading below the levels of  200-Days SMA, 20-Days EMA and 50-Days SMA. These indicators are at the levels of 5352.39, 5031.38 and 4857.16, respectively. 

Some Trading Stats of the Monday’s (28^th November, 2011) Trading Session:

Net Selling of Rs. 302.59 Crore in Cash while Net Buying of Rs. 1982.78 Crore in F&O Segment by FIIs was witnessed on Monday’s Trading Session.

Net Selling of Rs. 16.46 Crore and of Rs. 450.47 Crore was witnessed in Mutual Funds and Proprietory Trades, respectively, whereas, Net Buying of Rs. 117.28 Crore was witnessed in Others Segment.

In F&O Segment Net Buying of Rs. 531.08 Crore, of Rs. 910.67 Crore, of Rs. 529.60 Crore and of Rs. 11.43 Crore was witnessed in Index Futures, Index Options, Stock Futures and Stock Options, respectively.

NIFTY DEC FUTURE ended at a Premium of 19.00 Points to the Spot NIFTY.

A view on some of the NIFTY 50 Stocks for TOMORROW:

ACC:                Can touch the levels of 1210/1220, if touches the level of 1195.

AXISBANK:        Can touch the levels of 1015/1025, if touches the level of 995.

ICICIBANK:        Can touch the levels of 768/772, if touches the level of 752.

STER:               Can touch the levels of 107/108, if touches the level of 105.

Pre Market Calls:

ANDHRABANK: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 102 for the TARGETS of 104.50/105.60, with the STRICT SL of 100.60.

EDUCOMP: Buy ONLY IF IT TRADES ABOVE 218 for the TARGETS of 225/228, with the STRICT SL of 215.20.

For the day, intraday resistance for NIFTY comes at 4880 / 4920 / 4950 levels. At the same time, 4820 / 4780 / 4750 will act as major intraday support levels.